History never really repeats itself identically, but it often seems to stutter. Thus, the global energy crisis that we are potentially addressing, caused by the conflict in Iranis strangely reminiscent of that of 1973, when the Yom Kippur War broke out.
At the time, the decision of the countries of OPEC to drastically reduce production and violently increase oil prices triggered a major upheaval in energy markets. Western economies were hit hard by exponential inflation and major decisions were necessary regarding energy and industrial policies. Suddenly, and undoubtedly for the first time, the very strong dependence on fossil fuels appeared blatantly in the eyes of public opinion.
Today, this new geopolitical crisis highlights the vulnerability of the global energy model to oil supplies, just four years after the same observation regarding gas, following the war in Ukraine. The need to decarbonize our economies, to respond to the climate challenge, constitutes an additional parameter to integrate into this complex equation.
France was able to provide a masterful response to the first oil crisis of the 1970s, under the presidency of Georges Pompidou: in the absence of natural resources, the government launched the Messmer plan to build a substantial and unique nuclear power plant in the world. With a voluntarism that commands respect, the decision was made not to submit, to move towards energy sovereignty to allow the economic development expected by the whole of society.
Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the price of a barrel of crude oil has almost doubled in a few days, and no one can predict whether this increase will continue in the long term. But protecting ourselves against the instability of the oil and gas markets is a necessity that we will have to respond to with determination, if possible by turning our back on the about-faces of recent years!
Sobriety and energy efficiency are obviously essential levers – the cheapest energy is always that which we do not consume – but we absolutely must diversify our energy mix. We must move up a gear in the electrification of uses, develop the means of heat production, promote geothermal energy which is too often neglected, not abandon the battery sector to Asia and do everything in terms of skills to achieve these objectives within a reasonable time, that is to say as quickly as possible! All sectors, from construction to industry, including heating and mobility, are affected by this energy revolution.
Remember that, even today, electricity only represents 27% of the energy consumed in our territory. And globally, coal, oil and gas continue to represent more than 80% of the energy mix. The challenge is therefore considerable to accelerate the transition to low-carbon solutions, in particular by substituting electricity for fossil-based production whenever possible, which will require an increase in the volume of electricity production.
This massive approach cannot rely on intermittent energies alone: it requires stable, controllable and sustainable production. This is exactly what the nuclear sector allows, with very low CO emissions.2. However, it is not a question of reproducing the model of the 1970s: the nuclear sector must reinvent itself, integrate technological innovations, reopen the path to fourth generation reactors, develop small modular reactors and properly manage the waste produced over the past fifty years.
Any other attitude would amount to schizophrenia: countries that are able to combine energy security and decarbonization will be the leaders of tomorrow, capable of offering their population sustainable economic and environmental prospects. France must regain the leadership role it had at the end of the 1990s and, why not, instill a new energy order at European level.
Every crisis is a moment of tension and the one we are currently experiencing is particularly acute. But the etymology reminds us that it is also a time of decision, of rupture. Today, the relaunch of the nuclear sector, in the service of electrification and decarbonization, is not only a response to the emergency: it is a choice for the future, a commitment to future generations and the planet.
