The formula is thirty years old, but it has never seemed so current: “Hormuz is a gift from God more precious than an atomic bomb,” declared Hachemi Rafsanjani, president of the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1989 to 1997. The mullahs’ regime is fully aware of this power of nuisance. Despite a framework agreement, signed on June 17, promising to reopen the strait and 60 days of negotiations, Iran announced this Saturday, June 20, to “close” Hormuz, in reaction to Israel’s attacks in southern Lebanon, which it believes violate the memorandum of understanding concluded with the United States. The central command of the Iranian army, which communicated this decision, added that “other measures will be planned and implemented to compel the enemy to respect its obligations”.
The Islamic regime could have in its sights the seven underwater telecommunications cables, used by banking services but also by WhatsApp, Instagram, Netflix and even YouTube. “In the 21st century, I am not going to say that it is as essential as the air we breathe, but it is vital for our lifestyles and our societies”analyzes Loup Viallet, specialist in economics and geopolitics.
In a message broadcast on Telegram on May 18, the Revolutionary Guards indicated that the country wishes, in the name of its “absolute sovereignty” in its territorial waters, impose tolls on these fiber optic cables, the diameter of which is equivalent to that of a garden hose. On May 9, the spokesperson for the Iranian army adopted a more offensive tone by asserting that Iran “will impose taxes on internet cables” to the American digital giants (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) who operate these submarine links linking the Middle East to the Far East. Tehran assures that such taxation is in accordance with the law of the sea. The authorities take the example of the Suez Canal, through which numerous cables connecting Europe and Asia pass, and thanks to which Egypt collects several hundred million dollars each year. “It’s incomparable: the Suez Canal is an inland artificial waterway located entirely within Egyptian sovereign territory. Hormuz is an international strait »tells JDNews Éric Lavault, former admiral commander of the Naval Action Force for the control of the seabed.
Furthermore, under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, “States have the freedom to lay submarine cables,” recalls the admiral, who was responsible for the protection of French submarine infrastructure. Iran’s desire to impose a toll on cables located outside its jurisdiction would thus be considered an attempt at extortion.
The worst scenario
It is difficult to imagine Tehran winning its case in the negotiations it is conducting with Washington even though the regime threatens to sabotage these connections in the event of failure. “It is a psychological war that Iran is seeking to wagebelieves Éric Lavault. To cut a cable, simply drag an anchor. Knowing that the Strait of Hormuz is a few dozen meters deep (60 meters on average, Editor’s note), it is relatively easy. »
Attack would paralyze the digital economy and financial regulations
Such damage has already occurred in the Red Sea in 2024. A commercial ship attacked by the Houthis damaged a cable after dropping anchor. The incident disrupted internet connections between Europe and Asia, forcing operators to reroute nearly a quarter of the traffic. Whether it’s our emails or our financial data, 99% of the world’s information travels through cables laid at the bottom of the oceans. According to some experts, in the worst-case scenario, an attack would cause a global shock: paralysis of the digital economy, interruption of $10 trillion in daily financial settlements and disruption of the physical energy market, with the digital systems that drive exports of oil and liquefied gas from the Gulf being directly affected. Emergency solutions exist, terrestrial or satellite, but they remain incapable of replacing the capacity offered by underwater infrastructures.
Other observers, however, put these predictions into perspective. The International Cable Protection Committee believes that the threat primarily concerns the connectivity of the Gulf States and that the risk remains mainly regional. The organization recalls that between 150 and 200 accidental ruptures of submarine telecommunications cables occur each year. Iran, much less dependent on international connections, would also suffer more limited damage.
The stakes remain high for the neighboring countries, drawn into this confrontation against their will. “These bundles of optical fiber allow the Gulf monarchies to diversify their economies by gradually emancipating themselves from their oil or gas income”explains Loup Viallet, while many international financial institutions and multinational companies have established themselves in the region. “Today, the oil sector represents only 30% of the UAE’s GDP”recalls an economist. As an example, Dubai is today the main financial hub in the Middle East, with more than 8,000 registered financial companies and more than $70 billion in revenue generated by the sector. More broadly, the financial assets of the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries exceed $3,000 billion.
The fear of a blackout is real and “shake the countries of the region but also Washington, whose companies are directly concernedassures Loup Viallet. In a world marked by interconnection and interdependence, traditional power relations are being redefined. This development gives rise to “power from weakness”, allowing less powerful actors to have more influence against the great powers”he concludes. An illustration of how Iran manages to stand up to the world’s leading army.
