The numbers make it vertigo. In 2024, Russia manufactured nearly 1,800 combat tanks, compared to only 50 for all four main European countries (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Poland). Regarding infantry combat vehicles, Russia builds more than 6,500 per year, against 214 for Europeans. Same trend for artillery parts: 672 units produced on the Russian side, against 202 European side.
If the 27 signed an agreement on a plan up to 800 billion euros in order to rearm Europe in the face of the Russian threat, its execution is far too slow, according to a report published by the Kiel Institute (Germany) and the Bruegel Institute (Brussels, Belgium) and decrypted by the Echo. This industrial delay is not limited to figures. It testifies, according to the authors, of a strategic imbalance that the increase in European budgets is not enough, to date, to correct. Taking into account the purchasing power parity-which incorporates the real cost of equipment and labor-the Russian military budget would actually be greater than $ 400 billion, against 146 billion announced in nominal value.
A logistics and industrial ditch
To reduce Moscow’s military advantage, the production of land equipment should be multiplied within five years by three to six, depending on the case. “An increase in military expenditure does not translate automatically and immediately by strengthening military capacities, especially if the industrial defense base is under tension”recall the two institutes.
Clearly, orders are not enough: the industry must follow. And for the moment, the account is not there. At the end of 2024, the four European countries studied had 1,627 combat tanks, with 482 units ordered. However, to equip 25 brigades, it would take almost 2,400, indicates the report. And this threshold would be doubled in the event of an American disengagement or a freezing of the conflict in Ukraine, which would give Russia time to reconstruct its forces.
A colossal budgetary effort
Despite the creation of the European plan “Rearm Europe”, the authors of the report wonder: will this be enough? According to their estimates, it would be necessary to mobilize from 50 to 200 billion euros for tanks, vehicles and artillery parts, and from 200 to 300 billion additional for air defense, to which are added considerable investments in the air and maritime fields. Colossal investments, even though EU growth remains anemic. If the report is intended “Prudishly optimistic” On the European ability to increase its productions of traditional equipment by 2030, dependence on the United States remains whole for long-range missiles, collaborative drones or certain precision documents.
This alarming observation on the European military delay comes when we learned just a month ago that Russia discreetly modernized its nuclear arsenal, according to a joint investigation by the German daily Der Spiegel and the Danish investigation site Danwatch. After analyzing more than two million confidential data having leaked, journalists claim that Moscow has strengthened a dozen underground databases for launching missiles in the center-east of the country.
These facilities, according to them, capable of hitting Europe in less than ten minutes, are part of a broader rearmament strategy. Work has notably been identified in Kozelsk, south of Moscow, and Uzhur, in the Krasnoïarsk region, two sites already linked to intercontinental ballistic missiles. An additional threat, while the Kiel and Bruegel report shows that Europeans are already struggling to hold the rate of conventional reset.
