The Tangwall Campagin. In Ukraine, the military situation is progressing very slowly. If the Russians progress and could seize Pokrovsk, the total conquest of Donbass risks taking many more months. Is there another way to end the fighting?
Pierre Lellouche. In three months, the Ukrainian war will enter its fifth year! One and a half million soldiers were killed or wounded on both sides. Ukraine is ravaged by war. The situation is not good either for it or for its European allies. Militarily, war has long since ceased to be a war of movement. It has mutated into a drone war which prohibits any significant movement of forces, under penalty of immediate destruction. Diplomatically, the war is also being fought at a great distance between Americans and Russians, according to the whims of the American president, who sometimes cajoles his Russian counterpart, sometimes threatens him with sanctions and even the delivery of long-range cruise missiles. Putin is buying time: the rear holds, his economy and his Chinese ally too. Its war aims have never varied: the resolution of “root causes” of the conflict, namely the annexation of the entire Donbass and Crimea, but also the overhaul of the continent’s security system: less NATO on its borders and a neutral Ukraine which, in fact, would remain in its zone of influence.
Putin increases pressure on the remaining weak link: Europe
You often remind us that Russian tanks will not land on the Champs-Élysées tomorrow. But what about our Baltic, Polish, Romanian allies, etc.?
The smell of blood and fear of the opponent strengthens the predator. The Russians have perfectly understood the historic event represented by the American decision to disengage from Europe, as has just been demonstrated again by the withdrawal of American forces from Romania. Putin is therefore increasing the pressure on the remaining weak link: Europe, notably with repeated overflights of drones and combat planes over neighboring NATO countries, both to test the opposing defenses and above all to show that the NATO chain of command is more bureaucratic than operational. The Russians’ long-standing obsession has been to be recognized as a nuclear superpower on par with America, and therefore Washington has no other option than to negotiate with Moscow. Hence the announcement, just after Trump’s cancellation of the summit planned in Budapest, of two new “futuristic” nuclear-powered weapons, which led Trump (which the Russians had not anticipated) to announce the resumption of American nuclear tests “on par” with other powers (understand Russia and China).
Emmanuel Macron is multiplying without much effect on the Ukrainian question. Can the voice of France still resonate internationally?
Macron’s permanent agitation on the Ukrainian question is a reflection of the rest of his politics. ” at the same time “. At the start of the war, Macron began by insisting on “Russia’s security interests” and by seeking dialogue with Putin, before becoming one of his main adversaries by trying to lead the Europeans against Putin from 2023. Macron even went so far as to qualify Putin “ogre” feeding on the spoils of its neighbors, evoking the risk of war on television and letting French military leaders evoke a prospect of direct confrontation with Russia in the coming years. As my old master Raymond Aron said in his work Peace and War between Nations (1962): “Men know that in the long run, international law must submit to the fact that a great power which wants to prohibit conquests by a rival must arm itself and not proclaim in advance its moral disapproval”. Since 2017, Macron has spoken a lot “of sovereign Europe” only to discover today that it does not exist; he also talked a lot about rearmament, only to discover that we are not able to finance it, because of the political and economic disaster that he himself caused.
Former minister Pierre Lellouche pleads for an approach of diplomatic balance.
© Francoise Debort
Donald Trump himself is struggling to force the belligerents to lay down their arms. According to the American president, Putin does not want peace…
For the first time, Zelensky suggests that he would agree to a ceasefire, based on the current front line, serving as a framework for a future armistice. This is a major concession for the Ukrainians who, until now, did not want to hear about a “peace for territories” exchange, repeating over and over again that they intended to take back all of the territories conquered by Russia. However, the problem is that Putin shows no sign of wanting to be satisfied with the territories already conquered. His generals must undoubtedly promise him that they will quickly retake the 20% of Donbass which still remains under Ukrainian control.
The Europeans are demanding a total ceasefire before any peace talks. Isn’t this idea the most conducive to putting an end to the fighting and relieving populations exhausted by three years of total war?
For Europeans, the situation is almost as serious as for Ukraine. Not only are we completely excluded from the negotiation between Trump and Putin, but for the rest of the operations, the Trump administration has left us to fend for ourselves. Trump considers that this war, in which, he repeats, “he would never have committed”is a European war. He therefore stopped all arms deliveries and financing to Ukraine. Concretely, it is now up to us to finance the Ukrainian war effort, at least 60 billion euros per year, and to buy from the United States the weapons that Ukraine needs, in addition to urgently taking care of our own rearmament…
You don’t believe in “Europe’s military surge” ?
The end of the Ukrainian war promises to be extremely difficult and risky for the Europeans who, despite all the proclamations about their unity, approach the ordeal in obvious disunity. Firstly, money, the crux of the matter. Penniless France had hoped to be able to finance its essential rearmament thanks to a large European loan of 800 billion euros, as had been put in place for Covid. But Germany refused. The Commission will therefore only contribute 150 billion, to be shared between 27 countries… In other words, very little. Germany decided to go solo by investing 500 billion in its defense with a view to building “the largest army in Europe” according to the words of Chancellor Merz.
Same difficulty when it comes to aid to Ukraine. Without the Americans and without money, the idea arose to use Russian funds, deposited with Euroclear in Brussels. The problem is that the seizure of such funds, sequestered since 2022, even disguised with the word “war reparations”is completely illegal and above all risks destabilizing the confidence of international financial institutions and investors, which France cruelly needs to finance its own debt… Same disunity on the famous “anti-drone wall” promised by the essential Von der Leyen, and more generally on the anti-aircraft defense of Europe. The subject, again, marks a real break between Germany, leader of a group of around twenty countries with American and Israeli technologies, and on the other side France and Italy and their own missile defense system. Disunity still on the famous “coalition of the willing” supposed to deploy a so-called force of “reassurance” in Ukraine after a possible peace treaty. But no one wants to follow Macron in such an adventure, the Italian vice-prime minister, Salvini, having even advised him to “buy yourself a bulletproof vest, take your rifle and go to war in Ukraine yourself”. The truth is that neither the Americans, nor the Russians, nor the majority of Europeans want such a force…
