With its nearly 30 million inhabitants, its 5,000 kilometers of coastline and its dominant position on the Mozambique Channel, Madagascar is the fourth largest island in the world. Long characterized by relative stability and coherent diplomacy, the Big Island is now entering a political gray zone. The hesitations of the new junta, combined with the growing interest of foreign powers (United States, China, Russia, France) raise the risk of destabilization whose effects would go far beyond the national framework.
An uncertain political transition
The former Malagasy regime had made institutional stability a central argument, maintaining balanced diplomatic relations with traditional partners, while inserting itself into regional maritime security and economic cooperation arrangements. This continuity allowed Madagascar to remain a predictable player in an area marked by chronic crises.
Today, the absence of a clear political timetable and the contradictory signals sent by the new military authorities are fueling tensions. Recent experiences in the Sahel show that prolonged military transitions favor internal struggles for influence and the fragmentation of power. In Mali, for example, five years of transition have profoundly weakened civil institutions. In Madagascar, such a scenario could revive political and territorial rivalries, in a country where nearly 75% of the population already lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, making any instability particularly explosive.
The Mozambique Channel, a strategic corridor
Any political uncertainty in Madagascar has direct repercussions on the Mozambique Channel, one of the most strategic maritime corridors in the Indian Ocean, through which a growing share of regional and intercontinental trade passes. It is a key axis for the transport of hydrocarbons and goods linking Asia, Africa and Europe, but also for the fishing economy of the riparian states. However, this axis is already weakened by piracy, illicit trafficking, illegal fishing and the rise of naval rivalries. Not to mention the jihadist danger in the coastal region of Cabo Delgado, in Mozambique.
Thus, in a context where part of international maritime flows have been redirected towards the Indian Ocean due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the stability of coastal states has become an essential pillar of regional maritime surveillance systems.
A lasting weakening of Madagascar would weaken existing maritime security systems
A lasting weakening of Madagascar would inevitably weaken existing maritime security systems and encourage the emergence of gray zones, conducive to trafficking and non-state actors. In this strategic space, the absence of a fully operational state would offer increased room for maneuver to external powers and competing interests, to the detriment of regional stability. Such a development would risk increasing tensions in the Western Indian Ocean and complicating international cooperation efforts, even though this area has become essential for securing global maritime trade.
Russian influence, an aggravating factor in African crises
Taking advantage of the withdrawal of Western partners after the political unrest in the fall, Russia made a discreet entry into Madagascar with a military delivery arriving near Antananarivo on December 20. Presented as simple security support, this operation is in reality part of a broader strategy of influence, targeting maritime routes, mining resources and regional positioning. The presence of General Andreï Averyanov, a senior Russian military intelligence official, underlines the strategic importance given by Moscow to this territory close to Mayotte. Let us recall in passing that Russia has interfered on several occasions in recent years in this French overseas department.
In the case of Madagascar, this initiative is part of a dynamic of Russian geostrategic activism on the African continent. However, the consequences of this dynamic are now being experienced: from Mali to the Central African Republic, via Burkina Faso, Russian engagement in contexts of political fragility has been accompanied by an authoritarian hardening and a decline in electoral processes.
The possibility of seeing foreign mercenaries working for Russian interests becoming the close protection force of the new Malagasy regime constitutes a major warning signal regarding the risks of destabilization, foreign interference and attacks on national sovereignty. The example of the Sahel shows that this type of security dependence can lead to diplomatic isolation and a loss of political control. A refusal or prolonged postponement of elections, under the cover of security, would be likely to trigger a similar spiral on the Big Island. Madagascar finds itself at a tipping point. More than a simple national political transition, it is the stability of a strategic crossroads linking Africa to the Indo-Pacific that is at stake. The choices made by the new military authorities could determine whether the Big Island remains a factor of regional balance or becomes, in spite of itself, a new focus of geopolitical tensions.
