The negotiations in progress around a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, carried out for months by Qatar and Egypt, have entered a critical phase following the political crisis which shakes the government coalition of Benyamin Netanyahu. The Israeli government is on the grill each time we approach a hypothetical compromise because the most radical and orthodox currents reject any idea of discussion with Hamas, and the Palestinians in general.
Recently, the removal of the ultra-Orthodox Party United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and the Shas put on the saddle the Israeli government, reducing its majority to 50 seats against 61 necessary, and opening the prospect of acute political instability in the coming weeks. Will the Hebrew state take the risk of convening elections?
This situation has direct consequences on diplomatic discussions. On the one hand, Netanyahu, now in a position of weakness, sees its room for maneuver considerably reduced : It is taken in the vice between the claims of ultra-Orthodox parties, which require guarantees on military exemptions for students of Yeshivot (Talmudic schools), and the pressure of its far-right allies which condition their support for the refusal of any compromise with Hamas.
Towards a political recomposition?
This internal context pushes him to a wait -and -see, even uncompromising posture, to avoid giving the feeling of giving in to external pressures – which could precipitate the loss of his last parliamentary supports. Opinion sees this story of exemption from a bad eye from the start, because the country is at war and everyone must contribute to the war effort.
For Qatari and Egyptian mediators, this political fragility in Jerusalem is a major source of concern. Their objective remains the rapid conclusion of an agreement which makes it possible to defuse a catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza, but also to contain a wider regional risk. However, if the Israeli government were to collapse, these already complex negotiations would enter an area of total uncertainty.
A government about to fall has neither the legitimacy nor the political capacity to impose a sustainable ceasefire
The dissolution of the government would reject any significant decision of several months, until the formation of a new coalition resulting from early elections. This would leave the field open to prolonged military escalation and aggravate tensions on the Egyptian border and on Palestinian territory. No need to talk about the question repelled again from the release of Israeli hostages and an end of the war and the dead in Gaza!
In addition, Doha and Cairo fear that in the event of a fall in Netanyahu, the Israeli political scene will be recomposed around even more radical figures, less inclined to compromise, even hostile to traditional mediators that are Qatar and Egypt. The loss of an identified interlocutor, even weakened like Netanyahu, would complicate their role as facilitator and could put an end to weeks of laborious talks.
Finally, the mediators cited are now convinced that this Israeli internal crisis weakens the credibility of any promise or commitment that Israel could make in an agreement. A government on the point of falling has neither the legitimacy nor the political capacity to impose a lasting cease-fire in the face of the requirements of his own fractured coalition and an Israeli public opinion more polarized than ever: the unpopularity of Netanyahu but the fear of changing again in a zone of political turbulence which turns clearly against the Hebrew state and its population. Whether or not the current Prime Minister appreciates, his fall is likely to lead to much worse things in Israel and Gaza.
*Sébastien Boussois is Dprovision of political science, Arab and geopolitical world researcher, teacher in international relations at IHECS (Brussels), associated with CNAM Paris (Defense Security team), at the Institute of Applied Geopolitics Studies (IEGA Paris), In the Nordic Center for Conflict Transformation (NCCT Stockholm) and at the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory (Switzerland).
