Himars rocket launcher, F-16 hunters, Jam’s guided bombs, Atacms and Storm Shadow long-range missiles, perhaps even tomahawk, without forgetting an uncertain number of Patriot anti-aircraft systems, the list of weapons “High end” That Donald Trump intends to provide Ukraine seems impressive. She could suggest a return to the Biden era, the time when America spent without counting to contain the push of the old Russian opponent.
First sign that these times are over, however: if it is the United States that will provide arms, it will no longer be they who will pay them. Donald Trump was very clear on this. “We are going to send them weapons, and they are them (NATO members, editor’s note) who will pay them “said the American president last Monday at a press conference with, by his side, the NATO secretary general, Mark Rutte. “The United States will make no payment. We do not buy this equipment. But we will make it, and they are the ones who will finance it. »»
This turnaround towards Russia which, we will discover it, is not really one, proceeds from an authentic feeling of frustration in Trump. “I am disappointed with President Putinalso said the American president, Because I thought we would have an agreement two months ago, but that does not seem to materialize. »» But what can Trump do if not threaten the Russian leader first? All the weapons mentioned above have already been provided to Ukraine and almost, has been presented as a game change On the battlefield, that is to say as an asset that can tip the conflict in favor of Ukraine.
However, each time, nothing happened. Firstly because unlike their equivalents among the Russians, this equipment has never been provided in sufficient quantity to be able to weigh on the fate of weapons. It is not now that it will change, despite the renewed warlike desires of Europeans who have still not found a concretization. For example, 5,000 jdam or a hundred Storm Shadow are similar to communication. To have an impact, these figures should be multiplied by ten. The number of hunters is also limited, just like that of the pilots formed. Not to mention that it has already happened that Trump decides to provide weapons to Ukraine and then come back to his decision and interrupt the deliveries. One of his favorite ways of proceeding is to keep the vagueness in his opponents while removing his allies who, sometimes, no longer know what foot dancing.
This is the first time that Donald Trump has set an ultimatum to Russia. But it is fifty days, a delay deemed “Very long” by Kaja Kallas
There remains the reality on the ground. In July, according to the general analysis (2S) Olivier Kempf, “Russia has increased the volume of its strikes in depth. In contact, its inexorable progression continues ”. In recent days, the Russians have targeted Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones in proportions never recorded since the start of the conflict. “Trump is really upset against Putin. His announcement of tomorrow will be very aggressive ”had predicted, last Sunday, Senator Lindsey Graham, eternal supporter of the “More weapons, more interventions” And close to neo-conservatives. He is one of those who constantly prophesy the return of the American president to the fold of the deep state, after having long flirted with Putin. But as often, Donald Trump’s intentions are not exactly aligned with those of Deep State.
This is certainly the first time that Donald Trump has set an ultimatum to Russia. But it is fifty days, a delay deemed “Very long” By Kaja Kallas, the chief diplomat of the European Union. “If Putin and others wonder what will happen on the 51st day, I suggest that they call the Ayatollah Khamenei”said Lindsey Graham. The problem is that he is not even certain himself, as no one except perhaps the person concerned, and again, what his president will do …
New 100 % prices
Coincidentally, this fifty -day period corresponds roughly to the sixty days that Vladimir Putin had proposed to Donald Trump during a conversation in early July, to allow the Russians to recover more territories in the oblasters which they have already largely annexed, before starting a possible negotiation. The dead end in discussions between Americans and Russians on Ukraine also takes on a personal aspect for Trump, going so far as to cause differences within his couple. “I go home and say to the First Lady: ” I spoke to Vladimir today, we had a wonderful conversation ”he said. And she replied: ‘Oh really? Another city has just been struck. ”
All this, put end to end, will have forced Trump to act. But not, contrary to what Lindsey Graham and undoubtedly Melania Trump hoped, to get the United States out of the orbit of their new relationship with Russia. “We will impose very severe prices if we do not agree in fifty days: prices of around 100 %”threatened Trump. Again, especially theatrical effect. Even if these prices are applied, they will receive trade that did not exceed $ 5 billion in 2023.
Trump would have tested Zelensky on his ability to strike Moscow
However, other confidences made by Donald Trump reveal that he may not be that passive as he looks. According to Financial Timeshe would have encouraged Volodymyr Zelensky to make sure that “The Russians feel war”pushing him to use long-range weapons, asking him if he felt capable of hitting Moscow and Saint Petersburg. We know that the expression “The Russians feel war” was used for the first time by the same Volodymyr Zelensky who replied: “Absolutely, we can, if you give us arms. »» Will the latter take his wish? For the moment, he especially thanked Donald Trump. Not having enough to say enough thank you had been reproached to him by the vice-president JD Vance, during a famous meeting at the White House last March.
