Over the next twelve months, Europe will experience a veritable electoral marathon, heralding a very probable shift to the right, and even very far to the right, of the entire continent. The consequences of these elections promise to be massive on the future of the EU.
First of all, the marathon. Between the Bulgarian presidential election on October 25, followed by the early legislative election which has just been announced in Spain for November 29, and until December 2027 when the Italian legislative elections should take place, this particularly dense electoral calendar will concern a total of no less than eight countries, including four among the most populous, and four others in smaller countries.
Legislative elections will thus take place in Poland, Estonia, Finland, Greece and Slovakia, without forgetting three regional elections in Germany, crucial for the survival of Chancellor Merz, in April 2027, and of course the presidential and legislative elections in France next April-May. Such a build-up of elections in such a short period of time has not happened in a generation. But, more importantly, these elections will very likely mark a very powerful swing to the right, and even to the extreme right, while, in several countries, the “firewalls” and others “sanitary cordons” which prohibited coalitions with the extreme right will no longer be relevant.
Ravages of globalization
In 1999, the opposite happened. The majority of states – eleven out of fifteen – were then led by the left or center left and a Schröder-Blair-Jospin triumvirate reigned over a prosperous and confident Europe, which was preparing to move to the single currency. On the other side of the Atlantic there also reigned a Bill Clinton “progressive”. Twenty-six years later, the famous “third way” dreamed of by European social democracy is only a distant memory. The ravages of globalization have been there, with the rise of precariousness and deficits, the return of wars, to which is added the growing resistance against out-of-control immigration. It is this political landscape, deeply anxiety-provoking, which dominates today. This is evidenced by the return of Donald Trump to Washington, and that, in Europe, of national, even nationalist, parties, the rebirth of national cultures, the aspiration for much more restrictive immigration policies.
Consequence: in Spain for example, the Partido Popular and Vox will most likely manage to unite, putting an end to eight years of socialism under Sanchez: no more of the cordon santé which prevented agreement between these two right-wing groups. Elsewhere, we observe increasing radicalization: Giorgia Meloni, considered too moderate on her right, is now threatened by a retired general, Roberto Vannacci, at the head of a new party, Futuro Nazionale. Ditto in Poland where the very conservative PiS, Law and Justice, in power between 2015 and 2023, split into three other far-right groups, including the very anti-Semitic KKP led by a certain Grzegorz Braun.
Absolute nightmare for progressive Europeanists and advocates of continued unconditional aid to Ukraine: the possible simultaneous arrival of right-wing coalitions in Spain, Poland, Italy and… France. Such an equation would be infinitely more complex to manage in Brussels than Viktor Orban’s solitary guerrilla war was in his time. Already, Marine Le Pen made it known, Wednesday in Brussels, that France would demand, if elected, the renegotiation of the French contribution to the European budget, currently 31 billion euros (3% of our GDP) per year…
