Since February 28, and perhaps basically since Israel struck Qatar in September 2025, the Gulf has been in turmoil. Until now, certain countries have found themselves plunged into war, have faced regime overthrows, but never has the entire region found itself in such a situation of destabilization, testing the alliances of one and the other but also endorsing a reality that has been denied for too long: the United States, although it had already announced a decline on the international scene during Obama’s time, came back in force seven months ago under the leadership by Donald Trump. The long-unclear objective was probably the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, but after several months of difficulties, the Pasdaran regime may even have strengthened.
The Gulf monarchies had to bear the wrath of Tehran after the launch of the joint Israeli-American attack, and now few of these small, defensively fragile countries have understood that Washington would no longer have the capacity to fully protect them. Strong agreements and partnerships exist between Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait in particular, but if in exchange the American umbrella is no longer operational, what is the point of continuing to hope for its own security from Washington? Like the European Union, it is perhaps time to cast off, at the very least to strengthen, after years of division, the solidarity of the Gulf countries in the face of an Iran which is here to stay and with which we will have to deal and discuss.
Saudi Arabia hit in the heart
Until then, it was the petromonarchies that had been generally struck by Iranian missiles and drones, mainly from Iranian territory. Since the awakening of the Houthis, the last trump card of the proxies that the Tehran regime intended to bring down to encircle its enemies from the east to the west of the Gulf, the capture of the Bab el Mandeb Strait in a few days showed that the rebel militia was not determined to be fooled. Now, the leading regional power, a historic ally of Washington, is facing crossfire from the Houthis on its own territory, up to the Riyadh airport, the country’s main hub, struck on October 10 in the heart and leaving 12 dead, including an American.
Today, the Houthis supported by Tehran number more than 350,000
We are therefore crossing a new level of violence in the region because for seven years, between 2014 and 2021, the coalition led by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had tried to overcome the Houthis to strengthen the official Yemeni government. In vain. After the death of 400,000 people, the capture of Sanaa by the rebels, and the defection of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia secretly withdrew from a theater of operations that was impossible to win. Discreet during the very first months of the war launched by Trump last February, the Houthis woke up suddenly to come to the aid of their Iranian godfather. Today, the Houthis supported by Tehran number more than 350,000, more than the conventional Saudi army and a little more than half of the Iranian army. Their equipment is ultra-sophisticated, from ballistic missiles to the latest generation drones. Faced with this growing threat, the United Arab Emirates recently called on its Gulf partners to strengthen the region’s security by their own means.
Gulf security for the Gulf
For several decades, the Gulf monarchies had built their economic prosperity and security on a partnership with Washington. But regional upheavals, attacks on their territories and questions about the reliability of American protection have led them to completely reconsider this model for several months. The strikes which have taken place since February on several American bases in the region and on the Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar, requiring years of repairs, as well as the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, are putting local economies in difficulty and waking the petromonarchies from their torpor: there is only full independence and power with full security sovereignty.
Long convinced that they could preserve their territories from surrounding wars, they are now directly exposed. This clearly means that the economic prosperity of Riyadh, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha depends on security that can no longer be taken for granted. Basically, it’s an open secret: the security of the Gulf is indivisible. Recently, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the President of the United Arab Emirates, called for revitalizing Gulf cooperation, particularly in terms of defense, and stressed that any attack against Saudi Arabia also fatally threatened the security of the Emirates and other monarchies.
Putting regional integration and cooperation back on track
We must reshuffle the cards in the face of the insufficiency of regional military cooperation, act collectively, and relaunch the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which must go beyond its diplomatic and economic role to become a true, more operational instrument of collective security. This was indeed its initial goal and it is a fantastic opportunity to once again boost one of the best integrated regional organizations in the international system. It is probably time to stand together in the name of the survival of the Gulf. The relationship with Washington remains essential for GCC members, but Gulf states can no longer assume that their security would always be the priority of others. And faced with Trump’s changing statements, between threats of strikes and prospects of negotiation, it is an absolute emergency.
And the first big question will clearly be: how to create a system of collective deterrence that can work while maintaining diplomatic channels with Iran precisely in order to avoid any future regional conflagration?
*Doctor in political science, consultant and researcher in geopolitics, scientific collaborator CNAM Paris, director of the IGE (European Geopolitical Institute) and media consultant.
