“ The average price of gasoline is now around $4.30 per gallon »says a reporter to Donald Trump. “And you know what? replies the latter. You will never see an atomic bomb in the hands of Iran. The price of gasoline will decrease. There are so many of them, and everywhere, in all the oceans of the world. » While the conflict between the United States and Iran has just passed sixty days, and while no sign shows that the Iranian government is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz soon, Donald Trump is reduced, to explain his war, to bringing out the old adage used by his predecessor George Bush in Iraq: “Weapons of mass destruction must not fall into the hands of a terrorist regime. » Except that, as we know, Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction never existed. And everything indicates once again, including American intelligence, as assured by Joe Kent, its resigned director, that “the Iranian uranium enrichment program was obliterated by our strikes in June 2025”.
Trump’s decision to go to war has global consequences that now place Iran in a much stronger position than it was at the start of the conflict. Its ability to disrupt the world economy by striking the Gulf countries, seizing and then blocking the Strait of Hormuz, gives it a major strategic advantage, despite the blockade currently operated by the American navy at the exit of Hormuz. The regime was supposed to collapse after a few days under the fire of American and Israeli strikes. An uprising had to happen. Israel’s policy of targeted assassinations was intended to disorganize its response by cutting off the head of the serpent. None of this happened, and absolutely none of the objectives of this war were achieved. Worse, it seems that national cohesion in Iran in the face of an external enemy has been strengthened, as noted by American intelligence.
The “finishing blow”
On April 30, Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of Centcom, met with the US President at the White House to brief him on a possible new attack on Iran. Qualified as “coup de grace”it repeats line for line the rhetoric used by Robert McNamara, the Secretary of Defense during the Vietnam War. The new military option is intended to be limited and airy. In parallel with these declarations, 6,500 tons of American military equipment were delivered to Tel Aviv by sea in a single day, Thursday. Since February 28, 115,000 tons of bombs have been supplied to the Jewish state. The possibility of a new joint attack is therefore highly probable. However, it cannot ignore the fact that Iran, for its part, will also have benefited greatly from the cease-fire, to repair its missile launchers and put its military equipment back into action. One major difference though.
6,500 tons of military equipment were delivered to Tel Aviv on Thursday
While Israel and the United States can arguably continue to substantially degrade Iran’s military capabilities and civilian infrastructure, the Iranian regime is not about to fall. On the American side, however, the global crisis is accelerating and the clock is ticking for Trump, with his sights set on the mid-term elections in November. Not to mention that Iran could accelerate its destruction of its neighbors’ oil and gas installations in the event of an American-Israeli attack. To a cyclical energy crisis, linked to the blockade of Hormuz, would then be added a structural crisis which would plague the industry for years. And no country is safe anymore. Europe would be largely affected, with the aggravating factor being that it already no longer has Russian oil and gas to compensate due to the sanctions imposed on Moscow for the war in Ukraine.
No quick-acting antidote
Donald Trump and his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, repeat to anyone who will listen that the war is already won. Everyone will understand that there is no quick-acting antidote to resolve the situation in which the Middle East is currently plunged. What forty days of intensive strikes on Iranian territory did not achieve is not going to happen suddenly thanks to new air strikes or even the elimination of figures from the Revolutionary Guards. What Iran demonstrated during the negotiation attempts in Islamabad is that it cannot be forced to accept American conditions, or even to negotiate. To imagine that after having survived such military pressure, the regime in Tehran would be ready to capitulate is absurd. He is also perfectly aware that with Hormuz, he has a much more effective weapon than the suspense he has maintained for years over the progress of his research on the atomic bomb.
The risk of restarting the war on the part of Trump is to find himself in the situation where the American army can no longer withdraw and must constantly increase its prices; McNamara rhetoric precisely. Public opinion was moved, even the most prestigious generals. “I certainly would not recommend sending troops to Iransays Admiral William McRaven, the man who tracked down and eliminated Osama bin Laden. People don’t realize how big Iran is. I’m from Texas and Iran is two and a half times the size of Texas. » And he adds what everyone in the politico-military sphere is whispering: “If the Iranian regime survives, it wins. »
Trump’s remaining option is to rely on his naval blockade. Preventing Iran from releasing its oil would in the very short term amount to forcing it to close the wells, which will then be impossible to reopen. “If their oil doesn’t move, their entire infrastructure will explode. And if it explodes, you’ll never be able to rebuild it the way it was. » On this point, many experts are skeptical. Iran has demonstrated its resilience to military strikes. The country, under sanctions for forty-seven years, has developed a sophisticated energy distribution network, and its storage capacities are enormous. The standoff continues…
