The Gulf is looking for an emergency exit. Since Iran locked the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of March, the petromonarchies have been living with anxiety: how can they continue to circulate their oil when the world’s main energy artery is under permanent threat? Before the war, nearly 20 million barrels of oil crossed this corridor between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula every day – a fifth of global consumption. Now, hundreds of tankers remain immobilized, while crude prices are soaring in line with Iranian strikes and threats.
According to the figures of Financial Timesin the first fifteen days of the conflict alone, Gulf countries have already lost around 15.1 billion energy-related dollars. These few kilometers of blocked sea have consequences in the Gulf ports, where the scenery has changed suddenly. In the United Arab Emirates, Khor Fakkan, a small terminal stuck at the entrance to the strait, has transformed into a substitute lung: cargo ships flock there and containers pile up. More than 6,000 trucks now pass through the area every day to evacuate goods. Before the war, there were barely a hundred of them.
The scene says everything about the logistical panic that has gripped the region. Because the Gulf States are urgently tinkering with bypass roads. On the western side of the peninsula, Saudi Arabia is trying to regain control. The port of Jeddah, on the Red Sea, has become the new entry gate for goods coming from Europe via the Suez Canal. Container ships now unload their cargoes there before they cross the desert by truck to the Emirates, Bahrain or Kuwait.
Saudi Arabia’s trump card
This lightning reorganization is already redrawing the commercial maps of the Gulf. In the chancelleries, projects long considered unrealistic suddenly return to the table. The Imec corridor, supposed to connect India to Europe via the Middle East, is once again of strategic interest. Just like the old fantasies of giant pipelines crossing the peninsula or canals dug through the Emirati mountains to reach directly to the Arabian Sea. But behind these solutions, the reality imposes itself: none of these roads can replace Hormuz.
Exports remain well below pre-war volumes
Saudi Arabia certainly has a major asset: its East-West oil pipeline linking Abqaiq to the port of Yanbou, on the Red Sea. Built in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, this pipeline is today the centerpiece of the Saudi response. With it, Riyadh is pushing the infrastructure to the maximum, with nearly seven million barrels per day since February 28, compared to less than 800,000 barrels per day before the conflict. The Emirates also have their own emergency route: the Habshan-Foujeyra pipeline, which allows crude oil to be exported without passing through the strait. Since the start of the conflict, loadings there have reached record levels.
But even when boosted to full power, these infrastructures remain far from the mark. The volumes exported via Yanbou and Foujeyra only compensate a fraction of the usual flows. According to analysts, actual exports from the Middle East remain well below their normal level despite the maximum use of oil pipelines. Furthermore, bypassing Hormuz does not mean escaping the war. The Iranians are taking its Gulf neighbors hostage and the ports of Yanbou and Foujeyra have already been targeted by attacks.
Pipelines, pumping stations and oil terminals are now military targets. And if the Gulf States shift more of their exports to the Red Sea, they then expose themselves to another threat: that of the Houthi rebels, allies of Tehran, capable of disrupting traffic in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait.
Finally, the other weakness is political. Building new oil pipelines would require regional cooperation that the Gulf monarchies are still struggling to build. The rivalries between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Kuwait City remain deep. The memory of the blockade imposed on Qatar between 2017 and 2021 still haunts the region. “ In the Gulf, pipelines have often had a shorter lifespan than diplomatic crises », Explains a diplomatic source. She continues: “ This crisis acts as a brutal revealer. For years, the Gulf monarchies have promised a post-oil future of futuristic megacities and economic diversification. » But it is enough for Hormuz to close for the entire region to return to a more primitive obsession: finding ways to get the crude out.
