For three days, the war of press releases has raged around the Strait of Hormuz. It all started last Monday when, frustrated at realizing that his blockade of the Iranian blockade would probably take weeks before causing a major hydrocarbon crisis capable of bringing Iran to its knees, Donald Trump decided to take action. The American president chose passage in force, sending two destroyers with air assets to offer their services to escort the merchant ships.
The operation, called “Project Freedom”, had the effect of lowering oil prices in the face of the promise that America would soon unblock the strait. It also had the effect of immediately hardening the Iranian position to the point of opening a brief confrontation at the end of the week between the belligerents, to the point that some imagined the ceasefire in danger.
The confrontation culminated on Friday with the first resumption of firefights in and around the strait since April 8. Initially, the two American destroyers, the USS Truxtun and the USS Mason, crossed the strait in an operation to secure navigation. During their transit, they were reportedly attacked by Iranian drones, missiles and speedboats. The US ships, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, intercepted the attacks without suffering damage, then reportedly carried out retaliatory strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, according to Centcom.
The Iranian version of the incident diverges substantially. Donald Trump declares victory, explaining for the umpteenth time that Iran no longer has a navy, an air force or leaders. A few hours earlier, the Pentagon announced that it had destroyed six Revolutionary Guard speedboats… Since then, the two American ships have left the strait to reposition themselves in the Arabian Sea.
United Arab Emirates targeted by Iran
The other significant fact of this latest episode of confrontation between the United States and Iran are the strikes orchestrated by Tehran against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and only this country in the region. During the forty days of war, Iran surprised the world by attacking its Gulf neighbors at least as intensely as it did Israel. This time, and without officially breaking the ceasefire from the point of view of the two belligerents, Iran will have targeted the Emirates by sending several dozen missiles and drones. While many of them were intercepted, the Fujairah oil terminal was hit, causing a fire. It is through this terminal, located not in the Persian Gulf but on the Sea of Oman, that Abu Dhabi sells most of its oil, thus escaping the Iranian blockade.
It should be noted that Iran, however, did not target any Saudi or Qatari installations. This is because these two countries adopted a fearful neutrality towards it, while the UAE clearly continued to appear in the camp of the United States and Israel. This strategic choice, whose origins date back well before February 28, has already had terrible consequences. During the war, the Emirates received almost as many strikes from Iran as Israel. Their status as the “Singapore of the Middle East” has evaporated, and the days of Dubai’s splendor, in particular, may be over for good. Anouar Gargash, advisor to the presidency of the Emirates, nevertheless believes that “Iran’s attacks will help strengthen Israel’s influence in the Gulf region.”
In a sense, Abu Dhabi even considers Tel Aviv a more reliable partner than the United States
This assumed choice to support Israel had the counterpart that, for the first time in its history, the Hebrew state provided a foreign country with equipment and advisors from its iron dome, in order to put in place protection against Iranian missiles and drones, as well as a system to warn the population. The Emirates admit that the decision of the United States and Israel to attack Iran was unwelcome, but they remain faithful to their initial alliances because of the Iranian response which targeted them even though they had not shown any hostility towards Tehran, with whom relations were quite good. The Emirates acts towards Israel with pragmatism, contrary to the attitude of other countries in the region. In a sense, Abu Dhabi even considers Tel Aviv a more reliable partner than the United States. We cannot blame them, as it is sometimes difficult to see in which direction the United States is going in this conflict, nor if Trump will not decide to drop everything and move on to something else…
We have become accustomed to contradictions between the speeches of the American president and that of his administration, to the point of no longer always noticing them. The sequence that unfolded this week is nevertheless of significant importance in that it demonstrates Trump’s eagerness to want to end the conflict as much as his frustration at not succeeding in doing so.
Forty-eight hours after the announcement of the “Freedom Project”, the president decided to put it on hold and this, he explained, at the insistent request of Pakistan. While the belligerents flexed their muscles in the Arabian Sea, the negotiations continued. Last week saw several exchanges of proposals from both sides, with Donald Trump ending up saying that there was a chance of success. This is not the first time we have heard this little music, and often, when Trump does this, in the next second, he promises that Armageddon will fall on Iran if it does not sign the agreement. There was no shortage of this, with even thinly veiled threats of using nuclear weapons in the event of failure. Tehran responded by explaining that if we wanted to succeed, it would come through proposals and not through what, from its point of view, looks like a demand for capitulation. The end of the tunnel is still far away, but for now, the naval battle is over.
