Peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo remains‘one of the great African geopolitical questions of our time. She‘is not a slogan; it is a collective work, legal as well as political, which presupposes the loyalty of each person. What is happening today‘today in Kivu nevertheless reveals a major tension: Rwanda, far from‘invest in de-escalation‘he himself had accepted, adopts a posture which reflects less a mastered strategy than‘a growing concern about the evolution of the regional balance of power.
L‘agreement concluded under the aegis of Washington between the leaders of the region had created an unprecedented framework. For the first time in decades, Congolese sovereignty was explicitly recognized as pivotal to the stabilization of the Great Lakes. The withdrawal of external support for armed groups, the end of indirect intrusions and the establishment of verification mechanisms constituted a major diplomatic turning point. Contrary to what Kigali sometimes tries to suggest, this agreement did not mark the defeat of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): on the contrary, it marked the end of‘a gray zone in which, for too long, the international community had tolerated ambiguities detrimental to peace.
An escalation revealing strategic fragility
The reality on the ground quickly dissipated these ambiguities. Repeated violations, then‘advance of armed groups linked to the government of the neighboring country of the DRC until the taking of‘a new Congolese city yesterday, do not fall under‘an operational misunderstanding. They constitute a political choice, breaking with the commitments made. And this choice, from the point of view of international law and multilateral diplomacy, is difficult to defend. It exposes Kigali to a real loss of credibility and its isolation, precisely because‘he demonstrates a desire to circumvent an agreement which finally rebalanced regional relations.
A policy of faits accomplis cannot produce legitimacy or security in the long term
This paradox is revealing. L‘current escalation‘is not a sign of strength: it is a signal of weakness. When‘an actor violates an agreement to try to redraw by force the lines that‘he no longer controls diplomatically, he does not demonstrate his mastery, but his strategic insecurity. In fact, recent events confirm that‘agreement had indeed created a constraint for Rwanda and an opportunity for the DRC. C‘is the reason why he is today‘hui manhandled on the ground.
A boon for Félix Tshisekedi
President Félix Tshisekedi, for his part,‘finds it reinforced. No because the security situation would be satisfactory – it is not‘is not – but because the clarity of responsibilities gives the DRC real legitimacy. Washington, already attentive to respecting commitments, cannot ignore the growing gap between diplomatic words and facts. International law, too, cannot be invoked in variable geometry: supporting armed groups operating in foreign territory constitutes a clear violation, which partners in the region can no longer evade.
For the Great Lakes region,‘hour n‘is more‘ambiguity. Peace requires an end to external support for armed groups, strict respect for borders and sincere cooperation. The DRC has reaffirmed its availability to this path. Rwanda, on the other hand, will have to understand that‘a policy of faits accomplis cannot produce either legitimacy or security in the long term.
In the‘diplomatic history, ruptures of‘agreements often reveal the true balance of power: not that which the‘we proclaim, but the one that‘we try to hide. What is happening today‘today in the DRC is there‘illustration. The Congo is moving forward and‘It is undoubtedly this progression which disturbs those who fear being relegated to the periphery of the regional equation.
*Jean-Paul Laborde is a former under-secretary general of the United Nations. He headed the counter-terrorism executive directorate of the Security Council, held several high positions within the UN and the French judiciary. He is also a roving ambassador of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Mediterranean, where he works for dialogue and the promotion of regional cooperation.
