Will beer still flow freely in French bars in the coming months? On the eve of the World Cup, the question is enough to petrify bar owners and football fans. An entire industrial sector is observing with concern the rise in tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. For French brewers, the specter of a new economic shock is resurfacing: soaring energy costs, rising raw materials, logistical tensions and growing concerns around food CO₂, essential for the manufacture of soft drinks. After Covid and then the war in Ukraine, professionals are seeing the same weak signals reappear as in 2022.
“We are on alert, but not in crisis”summarizes Magali Filhue, general delegate of Brasseurs de France, an organization which represents more than 98% of French brewing production. Self-fulfilling prophecy? The tone is, for the moment, reassuring: “There will be beer this summer. » But behind this cautious speech, manufacturers recognize a sharp deterioration in the economic climate. “We have been living in permanent instability for five years”breathes Magali Filhue. “Between Covid, the inflationary crisis and now geopolitical tensions, businesses are having great difficulty regaining stability. »
The first additional costs are already being felt. “We have transport surcharges on deliveries, increases on glass and up to 14% increase on certain labels”explains David Hubert, regional delegate of the National Union of Independent Breweries. Glassmakers are warning of the rise in the cost of gas needed to operate industrial furnaces. Packaging manufacturers are talking about doubled deadlines for certain plastic materials. Even glues, caps or cans begin to suffer the effects of energetic tensions. “The whole chain is affected”summarizes the representative of independent brewers.
Years of severe turbulence
The anxiety is all the greater as the French brewing industry is emerging from several years of severe turbulence. The pandemic had deprived brewers of an essential part of their outlets with the closure of cafes, hotels and restaurants, which represent nearly 30% of the sector’s turnover. Then the war in Ukraine caused a sudden explosion in production costs. “In two years, around 500 breweries have closed”recalls Magali Filhue. Cereals, glass, aluminum and even electricity had then reached historic levels. “We had experienced increases of up to 60% on certain raw materials”confirms David Hubert. If prices then partially fell again, many small structures remain weakened. “Consumers are already suffering from purchasing power,” he explains. If we pass on all of the increases in sales prices, volumes will drop sharply. »
“It only takes one large site to close temporarily to cause significant disruption”
The main concern now concerns food CO₂. Little visible to the consumer, this gas nevertheless remains essential for the production of beer. “We can’t ignore it”explains David Hubert. “When we fill a tank, we expel the air with carbon dioxide to prevent the beer from oxidizing. » However, this market depends directly on the nitrogen fertilizer industry, itself strongly linked to natural gas. Carbon dioxide used in the food industry is recovered during the manufacture of ammonia, a process extremely sensitive to global energy variations. A significant part of gas and fertilizer flows passes precisely through the Strait of Hormuz. “Any international crisis carries risks of strong tensions on the CO₂ market”observes Magali Filhue. “We are monitoring questions of availability but also questions of price very closely. »
In the United Kingdom, the subject is already taken seriously enough that several emergency scenarios have been studied. The British authorities particularly fear disruptions in the food and hospital industries in the event of prolonged tensions over natural gas. In France, professionals remain cautious but vigilant. The sector has already experienced several episodes of shortage in recent years, notably during production stoppages in certain fertilizer factories. “It only takes one large site to close temporarily to cause significant disruption”recalls David Hubert.
For manufacturers, the real danger is therefore not a sudden disappearance of beer from the shelves, but a new inflationary spiral in a sector already weakened by three years of successive crises. “The problem is that we don’t know how long this will last”insists David Hubert. “If tensions set in, it could become very complicated for treasuries. » Same caution at Brasseurs de France: “What businesses are extremely concerned about is the lack of visibility”recognizes Magali Filhue. “If the situation were to last, it could become extremely complex for 2026 and especially for 2027.”
