America votes. Again. This is also a particularity of the country: the United States votes all the time and rarely at the same time. On Tuesday, several dispersed, local ballots were held, notably in Virginia, New Jersey and New York: elections which were enough to awaken media fever, one year to the day after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election. For two weeks, televisions have been replaying the same scene with the same expressions: “Trump put to the test!” », “first popular verdict! », “the barometer of Trumpism! » The refrain is known; every election is a “anti-Trump referendum”. But American policy, since 2016, no longer obeys this mechanism. These elections say nothing against the president: they say everything about the democratic void.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger faces Republican Winsome Earle-Sears to succeed outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin, who is barred by the Constitution from running for a second term. A former member of the CIA who became a centrist elected official, Spanberger relies on her image of moderation: priority to the cost of living, housing and the pragmatic management of public finances. Earle-Sears, current lieutenant governor, claims Youngkin’s legacy: lower taxes, firmness on immigration, defense of parents in education. The duel sums up the divide in Virginia: an urban and civilized North, geographically close to the federal capital, won over by the Democrats; a more conservative South, loyal to the Republicans. Polls show Spanberger slightly ahead, but within a margin of error. The vote will say less if the left “comes back” than if the Republicans can still hold a pivotal state, shared between Washington and the Appalachians.
In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli, narrowly defeated in 2021. The former state deputy, a moderate figure in the Republican Party, is playing the same card again: taxes, inflation, housing costs, without venturing into the culture wars. Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and member of Congress, embodies a civilized centrism, but backed by the dominant urban progressivism. New Jersey, the most populous state in the country, rich and aging, is not representative of America. His Democratic vote, less ideological than sociological, is that of an educated and connected middle class.
These local elections firstly reflect the political geography of the country, increasingly frozen between very left-wing urban areas and deeply conservative rural areas. Since the departure of Joe Biden and the disappearance of Obama, the Democrats have lacked incarnation. The party lives to the rhythm of its regional figures. Coastal governors, radical elected officials of the urban left, professional activists of identity causes hardly come together beyond their stronghold while no unifying figure dominates. Instead, a mosaic of themes (climate, racial justice, gender issues, Israeli-Palestinian conflict) serves as an ideological substitute for the lack of national leaders.
An urban and radical shift
Two municipal elections will be particularly scrutinized. They illustrate this ideological shift better than anything. In New York, Zohran Mamdani is the big favorite for mayor. This young elected member of the State Assembly, member of the Democratic Party and affiliated with the democratic socialist movement, proposes a resolutely left-wing program: free buses, frozen rents, creation of public stores and higher taxes for the income of the richest. Muslim and born in Uganda, Mamdani does not hide his support for the BDS movement of boycott, divestment and sanctions against Israel. In Minneapolis, Omar Fateh, born in Somalia, Democratic state senator, close to the Palestinian cause, asserts himself as the candidate capable of ousting the outgoing mayor in a city which has long been the epicenter of progressive issues.
Tuesday evening, Democrats will celebrate their victories. A party of principle. Because everyone knows: this urban and radical shift raises questions. Can they still speak to America from the margins, to these peripheral districts and modest suburbs where progress is measured in jobs and security rather than in symbols of identity? Democratic America looks at Manhattan and thinks it sees the country there. But he is moving away. The more conservative rural electorate is growing stronger as Democrats become culturally radicalized. This discrepancy could weigh heavily during the 2026 mid-term elections.
The real test will come during the Midterms
Meanwhile, without reaching new heights, Trump’s popularity remains stable, around 45%. The president maintains a solid base, even if the shutdown in progress temporarily weakens its image. The partial closure of the administration, caused by the budgetary standoff with Congress, is disrupting public services and fueling criticism of its management. Trump takes it without giving in.
In the United States of 2025, where the president governs by saturation of executive power, Tuesday’s votes will not change the situation. At most, they will measure the strength of the Democratic vote in the metropolises. The real test will come later, during the Midterms, the mid-term elections, which are played out neither in New York nor in Minneapolis, but in these rural districts which make and break the majorities in Congress. If the Republicans maintain their lead, the American left may well collect town halls, but it will continue to lose the country.
