The 20th century had consecrated the virtues of free trade. The idea of an open, fluid, interconnected world had ended up establishing itself as an unsurpassable horizon of modernity. The 21st century embarked on a break with this idea. In the United States, Donald Trump has brandished the standards of protectionism, marking here a fundamental difference with his predecessors-one more. He imposed massive customs duties, notably against China, convening a martial rhetoric that was believed to be disappeared: that of the trade war.
At first glance, logic seems clear. By erecting customs barriers, the American president hopes to weaken the Chinese rival, rebalance the trade balance and restore the industrial greatness of America. Popular economic common sense is delighted: less imports, more local production, and a glorious return of factories in the Midwest. But if the reality was more retorted? What if, behind this apparent demonstration of strength, hid for a reinforcement mechanics, for the benefit of Washington, but of Beijing?
Unsurprisingly, China, far from being surprised, retaliated. Beijing in turn imposes customs duties on American products, while displaying an astonishing resilience. It should be understood that the conflict opened by Donald Trump is not only a price. It is strategic and civilizational. In this game of failure on a planetary scale, China plays the long term, with the patience of ancient empires.
“American consumers pay the price: their imported products become more expensive”
Admittedly, in the short term, Chinese companies will suffer. Exports to the United States slow down, certain industrial sectors are bending. But this outer tension acts like a sting. It forces China to accelerate the reforms that it had not dared to undertake so far. Diversification of markets, Development of domestic consumption, rising industrial upmarket, conquest of technological autonomy: trade war becomes a catalyst.
Boomerang effect
American protectionism could therefore be a poisoned gift. By wanting to isolate China, Trump pushed her to consolidate his alliances: towards Asia, Africa, Russia. Beijing strengthens its presence in international institutions, signs alternative free trade agreements and positions itself as a champion of temperate globalization, while Washington isolates itself.
Worse still, America is injured itself. Because customs tariffs, far from being a punishment for China alone, are a boomerang. American consumers pay the price: their imported products become more expensive, inflation threatens. Companies that depend on Chinese components will see their costs explode, their competitiveness erode. And farmers, collateral victims of Chinese reprisals, are worried about the future.
In this orchestrated disorder, the markets piled in, the supply chains are cracking, and the great story of globalized capitalism vacillated. China, constrained in self -sufficiency, paradoxically finds a form of sovereignty. Far from submitting, she innovates, invests, develops her own technological giants – let’s be honest that does not date from the Trump presidency. Huawei, Alibaba … emancipate from the Western need. Dependence is overturned.
Thus, Trump’s protectionist gesture, thought as a maneuver of national reaffirmation, could well mark a geopolitical rocking: that where China, driven into its entrenchments, accelerates its ascent. To want to break China, Trump may have reinforced it. History will say if, in this duel of empires, it is the brutal gesture of the American president or the patient strategy of Chinese power that will have shaped the century.
The war of two models of civilization
But it would be illusory to believe that this showdown is limited to the flows of goods and exchange rates. Because behind the customs quarrels is a larger rivalry: that of two models of civilization. Traditionally, the United States defends a liberal, democratic, Western vision, of which it has been the heralds since the end of the Second World War.
“In this global competition, trade war almost appears as a prelude”
China offers a sometimes deemed counter-model authoritarian, technological, based on social control, stability and growth. This latent conflict is expressed in international speakers, in digital networks, in the conquest of artificial intelligences and, more and more, in the military sphere.
Because the Chinese rise is not limited to factories and laboratories. It is also measured in tons of aircraft carriers, in hypersonic missiles and strategic bases installed on the borders of the Indian Ocean. Through Taiwan, the Southern China Sea or the Pacific, the confrontation intensifies. It is no longer just a question of knowing who will sell the most smartphones or steel, but to determine who will define the rules of the world to come.
In this global competition, the trade war almost appears as a prelude, a first skirmish in a deeper shock between two powers with the visions of the inconciliable world. And paradoxically, by wanting to contain China on the economic ground, Donald Trump only rushing his roots as an essential actor of the century that opens. This is all the threat.
