In any revolution there is hope, a fever, and too often a day after ashes. History abounds in glorious uprisings, immediately followed by instability, conflicts, deadly disorders. The tyrant falls, but peace does not follow. After the fall comes the dizzying question of power, law, national cohesion. So it was in France in 1789: the old regime collapsed, hope gushed, but Robespierre succeeds Louis XVI, and terror is unleashed in the streets of Paris. The spring of the peoples of 1848 caused more disillusions than democracies. The Arab world, since the 2011 uprisings, has not escaped this tragic paradox: to overthrow a dictator does not guarantee justice or peace.
Syria is today the most violent scene of this old drama. The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 was rightly praised: the departure of this bloodthirsty despot, responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, offered the illusion of a renewal. But, like so many revolutions, the void left by the dictator was soon filled by other forms of violence.
The new president, Ahmed al-Charaa, from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, tried to reassure the worried minorities. But the promises of unity remained dead letters. Because in a country fractured by thirteen years of civil war, religious, ethnic and tribal cleavages are all households of discord. And today it is the Druze minority that pays the high price of this instability.
UN helplessness
The Druzes, a religious community resulting from Shiite Ismaelism and deeply rooted in the Soueida region, in the south of Syria, live in permanent concern. At the crossroads of multiple spiritual traditions – from Greek philosophy to Hinduism, passing through Islam and Christianity – their faith and their way of life distinguish them as much as they expose them. Already marginalized by the Assad regime, their community now undergoes tensions with the Sunni Bedouins, in a context where the central authorities are deemed partial and weakened.
The fall of an authoritarian regime, if it is not followed by strong institutional consolidation, leaves the way free to extremism
The recent cycle of violence tragically demonstrates this. In April and May, clashes opposed Druzes fighters to government forces. On July 13, the removal of a Druze vegetable merchant relaunched the murderous spiral. Dozens, then hundreds of deaths. The streets of Soueida strewn with bodies. The Syrian army enters, then withdraws under the pressure of Israel, which is now presented as the protector of the Druze of Syria. Meanwhile, tribal militiamen flock from the whole country, stirring up the embers of the conflict. The helpless UN claims investigations and begs that blood stops flowing.
Should we be surprised? History teaches us that the fall of an authoritarian regime, if it is not followed by a strong and inclusive institutional consolidation, leaves the way for extremism. Post-Assad Syria is today the scene of this fragmentation. Central power is disputed, divided, questionable. The alliances are moving, the local ambitions uncontrollable. The minorities, formerly protected (by cynical interest) by the Assad diet, are exposed, isolated, and sometimes taken in pincers between two dangers: tribal chaos and state repression.
Find a role of mediator
It is time for the international community, and France in particular, takes the measure of this new reality. If we are rightly delighted with the end of the Assad regime, we cannot remain a spectator of the disorder that succeeds him. What’s the point of dropping a tyrant if it is to give birth to an endless civil war?
France, heir to a humanist diplomatic tradition, must regain its role as mediator. It must carry, with its European allies, a diplomatic initiative to guarantee the protection of Syrian minorities. This presupposes a clear commitment: in favor of independent surveys on abuses, support for local civil structures capable of organizing peace, and a net refusal of any religious or ethnic purification.
Post-Assad Syria is at a crossroads
It is also necessary to understand the strategic issues of the moment. The return of violence to Syria, in a context of regional tension with Israel, could trigger a new massive exodus. However, Europe, already shaken by the migratory waves of the past, cannot afford the luxury of a new crisis. To preserve Syrian stability is not only a moral duty, it is a political necessity.
The Druzes of Syria do not claim a privilege, but a guarantee: that of being able to live according to their faith, on the land they have lived for centuries. Ignoring their fate would be a fault. Western disengagement, in this critical phase, would open the way to the most brutal forces. Syria is needed a solid, fair, negotiated peace – not a peace imposed by arms or dictated by hatred.
History shows us what is happening when democracies close their eyes: they wake up, too late, in front of the dramas they could have warned. Post-Assad Syria is at the crossroads. Let us hope that she does not add an extra page to the big book of missed occasions for peace.
