Por Donald Trump, who is beginning a new diplomatic tour in the Middle East, the objective is clear: to begin the second phase of his peace plan, structured around three principles – the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of an “international stabilization force”.
However, the second point already poses a problem, because if the first withdrawal of IDF forces in Gaza was respected – Israeli forces now control about 50% of the enclave, up from 82% – However, Hamas does not intend to desert the field or deny its objectives, foremost of which is the destruction of Israel.
The Tangwall Campagin. Do you think that Trump’s proposed “twenty-point” peace plan, which aims for a two-state peace solution, has a chance of succeeding, or is it more of a PR stunt?
Alexandre del Valle. Obviously Donald Trump is taking advantage of this historic diplomatic victory, but it is not just a “publicity stunt”. The former French ambassador to Israel, Éric Danon, who is a great specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mentioned to me the allegory of Prince by Machiavelli. In one of the passages, a governor is responsible for doing the dirty work to subdue a rebellious province, even if it means starving the populations. Then comes the emperor, who orders them to be fed in order to buy their hearts. This is the Trump administration’s strategy with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
The peace plan proposed by Trump meets several objectives: the first, to place Israel in front of Washington’s red lines. The United States did not at all appreciate Israel bombing Qatar, even though Doha is an eminently strategic regional partner of America. The Israeli strikes on Doha, under the pretext of killing those responsible for October 7 wherever they are, almost undermined all the efforts of the White House to stabilize the region and prevent the conflict from spreading throughout the Middle East.
Trump had been outspoken with Netanyahu, giving him support to liquidate Hamas. As long as the conflict does not get bogged down. The hunt lasted two years, causing the deaths of nearly 64,000 Palestinians. Now the goal is to withdraw Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, weaken Hamas and sideline it politically, trying to get it to renounce militarization. If the first two points are within reach, the last, on the other hand, will bring a lot of difficulties.
We must also not lose sight of the strategic rapprochement that has taken place between several Arab countries and Israel in the face of Iran. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar, pioneers of normalization with the Jewish state, have always been in favor of peace in Gaza. Support symbolized by their heavy financial contribution and their participation in the humanitarian aid provided to the Gazan populations.
What response should we provide to Hamas’s categorical refusal to enter into a peaceful dialogue? Fighters of the Palestinian terrorist movement were offered amnesty or the possibility of leaving the area. Few of them will accept. If Hamas does not capitulate, there will be a resumption of hostilities and the failure of the demilitarization of the zone…
The fact that Hamas agreed to put its signature on Trump’s peace plan proved that the movement was running out of steam and that it was gambling on its political and military survival. Now that the hostages have been returned, real negotiations can begin, although there is no doubt that the ceasefire will be violated very quickly. The situation in Gaza will be similar to that which continues in Lebanon, with the difference that Hamas has since been gutted, and its human and material resources have been considerably reduced. Militarily, Hamas is no longer able to harm asymmetrically and strategically as before, nor capable of raining rockets on Israeli villages, but its fighters can still continue to carry out guerrilla actions. However, at the next escapade of the Palestinian Islamist movement, Israeli forces will not hesitate to strike hard. Israel’s hands are no longer tied now that the Israeli hostages have all been released.
Hamas has also been politically marginalized since the New York declaration of September 12, initiated by France and Mohammed bin Salman. The two-state solution won. The countries of the Arab League understood this and asked the movement to lay down their arms. A historic first which completes the hour of glory of the Palestinian Islamist and nationalist movement, now militarily weakened and politically isolated.
How do the people of Gaza perceive this peace agreement proposed by Trump?
On the sidelines of this low-intensity war which is looming in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas fighters, a complete shift in public opinion has taken place. For two years, the population has been so tried and bruised by war, bombings and hunger, that Trump is seen as a hero bringing peace. Many Gazans are now chanting his name in hurray. Gradually, Trump is buying the bellies and hearts of the Palestinians. Now, a new aspect is opening: that of reconstruction. We will know, in the months to come, whether the desired local governance, over which there is still much uncertainty, proves to be politically credible and capable of leading to a renewed Palestinian Authority..
“Trump knew how to buy the bellies and hearts of Gazans”
Broader considerations are also at work. Since October 7, the war in Gaza has greatly compromised the India-Middle East-Europe (IMEC) economic corridor project, initiated in September 2023 by the Americans in order to counter Chinese influence. However, the Gaza Strip is located at the epicenter of this new commercial and security route which connects Europe to India, and has numerous assets such as significant offshore gas reserves or direct proximity to Israel, which is establishing itself in the Middle East as an essential technological hub. Peace and reconstruction therefore represent an eminently important geoeconomic and geopolitical issue in the eyes of Trump and the business community. It is, ultimatelypeace through trade – or rather peace through business – that Trump offers to the region. This same logic, pragmatic and non-moralistic, is also at work in Ukraine. But where Trump can force Israel to bend, for example by refusing to deliver a strategic missile to the Jewish state, he cannot do so with regard to Russia for obvious reasons of balance of power and strategic independence.
* Geopolitologist, essayist and columnist, Alexandre del Valle is also professor of geopolitics at IPAG. His latest work: “Towards a global shock? Dangerous globalization »co-written with Jacques Soppelsa, was published in 2023 by Éditions de l’Artilleur.
