Gulf: the end of the American umbrella and the attraction of the Orient

For a long time, the Gulf monarchies believed that their prosperity, stability and security would be definitively guaranteed by their alliance with the United States. This certainty has structured the entire regional geopolitical architecture since the Quincy Pact in 1945 and then the Gulf War of 1991. American military bases, colossal arms contracts, protection of energy routes, security cooperation agreements: everything seemed to indicate that Washington would eternally remain the ultimate guarantor of regional order.

However, this 2025 war against Iran and the regional consequences have brutally revealed a much more worrying reality for Doha, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City or Manama: the American umbrella no longer offers the guarantees of the past. Worse still, the Gulf countries are discovering that they can now become collateral damage in a confrontation that goes beyond them. This historic rupture is now accelerating a major strategic restructuring in the region and is gradually pushing the Gulf monarchies to look elsewhere, particularly towards China, to prepare for the post-America era.

The myth of American protection has collapsed

For decades, the Gulf monarchies lived with an almost intangible certainty: whatever happened in the region, the American military umbrella would always end up protecting them. This conviction was not only geopolitical. It was psychological, cultural and almost civilizational. In the streets of Doha, Manama, Kuwait City and Abu Dhabi, the presence of American soldiers was part of the decor. Military bases, joint exercises, arms contracts, security agreements, naval fleets, anti-missile systems: everything combined to anchor the idea of permanent protection provided by Washington. The Gulf countries had integrated this presence as a strategic life insurance in one of the most explosive regional environments in the world.

The American-Israeli attack on Iran and the regional conflagration that followed brutally shattered this myth. For the first time in decades, the Gulf monarchies discovered that they could become collateral damage in a war waged in the name of American and Israeli strategic interests without their own security being truly guaranteed. Iranian missiles fell around energy infrastructure, drones crossed regional airspace, markets panicked, energy flows faltered, and at the same time American and diplomatic personnel were gradually leaving certain sensitive areas. The image was terrible: at the moment when the umbrella was supposed to open, Washington withdrew some of his men.

All this was based on an implicit contract: security versus energy and financial stability

The psychological shock is immense in the Gulf. Because it is not just a military crisis. This is a historic breach of trust. The monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council had invested hundreds of billions of dollars in their relationship with the United States: arms purchases, military bases, lobbying in Washington, energy partnerships, massive investments in the American economy, cultural and academic soft power. All this was based on an implicit contract: security versus energy and financial stability. However, this contract now appears to be deeply weakened.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on the brink of collapse

This war acts as a brutal reveal of the gradual collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council itself. Created in 1981 to coordinate regional security in the face of strategic upheavals in the Middle East, the GCC has never seemed so divided. Gulf unity was already largely fractured since the blockade imposed on Qatar in 2017 by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. This crisis destroyed the very idea of automatic solidarity between Gulf monarchies and opened a lasting divide between Doha and Abu Dhabi.

But the Abraham Accords accelerated this division. By choosing an assumed strategic rapprochement with Israel, the United Arab Emirates have profoundly modified regional balances. Officially presented as peace and regional modernization agreements, they were above all perceived by several Gulf actors as an attempt at geopolitical recomposition for the benefit of a sustainable Abu Dhabi-Tel Aviv axis. This orientation has increased tensions with Qatar, which is more cautious, but also with Saudi Arabia which, despite certain tactical convergences with Israel, refuses to be drawn into a logic of permanent frontal confrontation with Iran.

Because Riyadh has understood one essential thing: regional instability directly threatens its own economic transformation. Mohammed bin Salman needs a relatively stabilized environment to succeed Vision 2030attract foreign investment and transform the Saudi economy. A permanent war with Iran or a logic of continuous escalation led by Israel and certain American circles now becomes incompatible with Saudi strategic interests. This is precisely what explains the gradual rapprochement between Riyadh and Doha over several years.

Faced with this new reality, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are now seeking to rebuild an autonomous regional balance capable of containing the growing influence of the pro-Israeli Emirati axis. Behind the quiet diplomatic speeches, a real battle for influence is taking place within the Gulf itself over the strategic future of the region.

The Gulf is already preparing for post-America

The most important turning point is now here: the war against Iran probably accelerates the end of the Gulf’s exclusive security dependence on the United States. Donald Trump has dealt a considerable blow to American credibility in the region. Its purely transactional approach to alliances ended up convincing many Gulf leaders that in the eyes of Washington, these countries remain above all energy and financial platforms rather than true allies to be protected at all costs.

Western silence during the Iranian strikes and the lack of a sufficiently protective response had a profound impact on public opinion and Gulf elites. Many are discovering that proximity to American power no longer necessarily guarantees security. The United States remains militarily dominant, but it no longer wants to bear alone the political, human and strategic cost of protecting the Gulf as in the 1990s or 2000s.

The Gulf monarchies now understand that they can no longer simply buy their security from Washington

This development mechanically opens the way to a global recomposition of the Gulf alliances. China now appears to be an essential partner. Beijing is already the main energy customer of several Gulf monarchies and is gradually advancing its diplomatic pawns in the region. The Iranian-Saudi rapprochement negotiated under Chinese mediation in 2023 had already sent a major signal: China no longer only wants to buy Gulf oil, it now wants to participate in the political and security organization of the region.

In this new chessboard, the Gulf monarchies will probably seek to diversify their strategic partnerships: China, India, Türkiye, even certain European powers. Not to immediately replace the United States, which remains impossible in the short term, but to avoid depending on a single power that has become unpredictable. The Gulf is therefore entering a new era. The illusion of security exceptionalism has disappeared with the missiles falling around energy infrastructure and American hesitations. The Gulf monarchies now understand that they can no longer simply buy their security from Washington. They must rebuild it themselves, regionally and strategically. The American umbrella may not be completely closed. But he is now fleeing everywhere.

*Sébastien Boussois is a doctor in political science, media consultant, researcher in international relations associated with the CNAM Paris (Defense Security Team) and the Geostrategic Observatory of Geneva (Switzerland) and director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE).