Almost two years to the day after their hostage-taking, Donald Trump has just announced what is about to constitute a major turning point in the war between Israel and the Hamas movement: the release in a few days of the 47 remaining hostages, held in the Gaza tunnels. Among them, 25 are unfortunately probably already dead. For several days, beyond the good news for the Hebrew State, the country will face a new reality by preparing to receive the dead and the living dead; it is a new national trauma for which the country is preparing. But it will also, hopefully, also stop the bombings and deaths in Gaza, which are estimated to date at more than 60,000. It is the longest and deadliest conflict that Israel has faced and is perhaps finally preparing to end.
It therefore took unwavering determination and months of informal diplomacy, effective intermediaries like Egypt and Qatar, threats and promises to get there. Donald Trump, faithful to his frank, direct and unpredictable style, finally announced last night the signing of the first stage of his peace agreement between Israel and Hamas. The American president, returned to the center of the international game and the negotiation despite his wish to disengage from all these scenes of conflict, has imposed a tight timetable because in the Middle East, we must act quickly: from next Monday, the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza should be released in exchange for 2000 Palestinian prisoners. A moment that many are already describing as historic.
Since October 7, 2023, the date of the Hamas attack on Israel which left more than 1,200 dead and led to the capture of more than 240 people, the question of hostages has been an open wound in the heart of Israeli society. Dozens of them were released during the temporary truces, with great difficulty, others were found dead, often in atrocious conditions, and today only around twenty survivors remain. Benjamin Netanyahu waited a long time before making their release a priority, which would have avoided so many deaths on both sides. For Israeli society, starting with their families, the recovery of them, alive or dead, is an absolute priority. In Jewish tradition, “pidyon shvuyim” — the redemption of captives — is a moral and religious duty as ancient as it is sacred, and the images of Magen David Adom, the Israeli relief organization, welcoming survivors at each exchange, recall the symbolic and human value of this struggle. They will have essential support work to reconstitute the bodies of the missing.
The price of this liberation is heavy, but consistent with a long Israeli tradition of massive exchanges. In return, 2,000 Palestinian prisoners must regain their freedom. Among them, women, minors, administrative detainees without trial, individuals also involved in October 7, and also several political figures and activists. This type of agreement, often criticized in Israel for its apparent imbalance, has nevertheless become over the decades a recurring diplomatic tool: each release of Israeli hostages has historically been accompanied by a mass release on the Palestinian side. In addition to this exchange, the agreement provides for the temporary suspension of Israeli bombings on Gaza, a gradual withdrawal of the army to the northern periphery of the enclave, and the creation of a permanent humanitarian corridor supervised by foreign observers.
Will Israel accept the presence of a foreign force on its borders in the long term?
But this is only the first step of the Trump plan. The American president intends to go further, in accordance with these projects, since no one else at this stage seems to be able to do so: reestablish a lasting truce, launch a plan to reconstruct Gaza, and set up an international interposition force, a sort of UN without the United Nations, to secure the area for three years. What Hamas was still opposed to a few days ago. Ultimately, he hopes that the Palestinian enclave will be administered by a transitional civil authority, headed by an external figure – Tony Blair is mentioned again – while waiting for the Palestinians to regain real local power. Which will take time, especially since the Palestinian Authority, the only official representative of the Palestinians, is hardly mentioned there. This plan, supported by a broad international coalition, still raises many questions: will Hamas respect its commitments? Will Israel accept the presence of a foreign force on its borders in the long term? How will Netanyahu contain his ultra-radical coalition which wants to recover Gaza and liquidate Hamas? What exit door for the latter and what to do with the executives? And finally, above all, what place for the Palestinians themselves in a system which seems partly decided without them at this stage?
Donald Trump thinks bigger. By signing this first step, he hopes to embody the return of American voluntarism in the Middle East (which was not the initial project) and, above all, to win the Nobel Peace Prize. He bet everything on this bet: to end the Gaza war before October 7, the second anniversary of the attacks, and to give back to the world the image of a mediator who acts where others have failed. Who else anyway? By rehabilitating Qatar, the only credible interlocutor with Hamas, and having Netanyahu apologize from the White House after the Israeli attack on Doha, Trump also provided new security support not only to Qatar, but to all of Washington’s historical petromonarchies in the region. It remains to be seen whether this moment of predicted history will only be a diplomatic flash in the pan or the true beginning of a new era for Israel, Gaza, and a Middle East exhausted by two years of hatred and revenge. In the Middle East, things must move quickly or risk collapsing. Donald Trump works the same way, that’s good.
*Doctor in political science, researcher Arab world geopolitics international relations, director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE), associated with the CNAM Paris (Defense Security Team), at the Geostrategic Observatory of Geneva (Switzerland). Media consultant and columnist.
