To make fun of Brazil, we say that it is a country of the future and that it will remain so. Lula’s re-election in the second round of the presidential election is a dramatic turn of events. As was Bolsonaro Jr.’s lead in the first round, three weeks ago. His father’s victory eight years ago. Or his defeat by a hair, four years ago. Each time, the voter humiliates the pollsters. There are 160 million of them and they make politics a novella, full of cruel twists and turns. The Palace is never far from the prison. The future is not written anywhere.
Survive dishonor
The Brazilians chose Lula for the fourth time, a world record in a democracy. His first name and his legend are known all over the world. But he will be 85 years old at the end of his mandate. Three years older than Joe Biden. He himself has spoken in recent months of the weariness of time and an overwhelming weariness with regard to the Workers’ Party that he founded and which has wallowed in scandals. As if he was innocent even though he has reigned for a quarter of a century!
In the chorus of universal acclaim, Europe was the loudest. In tune with the Chavistas of Caracas, Cuba, Tehran or the Kremlin… Ursula von der Leyen praised “the victory of democracy and multilateralism”. As if Brazil, pulling the BRICS behind it, could save Europe from the marginalization to which the return of empires condemns it. Emmanuel Macron celebrated the winner “in the service of a fairer world in the face of major challenges”. He seems not to have noticed that the Amazon rainforest continues to burn and the indigenous Yanomami to perish. Finally, Pedro Sanchez, surrounded by resounding scandals, sees in the Brazilian’s victory “the comeback of global progressivism”. Above all, it demonstrates that he is right not to despair because a politician survives dishonor.
“Petrolão” is the largest global embezzlement scandal ever revealed. It involves hundreds of millions of dollars. He brought down ministers in office in half of Latin America. It is impossible that Lula was not aware. Very unlikely that he didn’t take advantage of it. His convictions were confirmed by the court of appeal which even increased his sentence. The Court of Cassation confirmed. The Supreme Federal Court, however, ruled that Lula should not have been imprisoned before all legal remedies had been exhausted. This is an interpretation of the Brazilian Constitution that was only used in his case. Lula was released and celebrated as an innocent. The evidence produced against him in the Lavo Jato case was later quashed. A sleight of hand which explains the animosity felt by half of the Brazilians and their disgust on the morning of his victory.
The election of a right-wing majority in the Brazilian Congress will force Lula into a form of cohabitation. Lula the magician will be untouchable but in semi-retirement. It will continue to claim sovereignty and tout a greater role for the state in development policies. The geoeconomic reality is accelerated deindustrialization over the past 30 years. China will continue to invest in electricity networks and port infrastructure, buying 70% of Brazilian soybeans, its beef, its iron ore and its rare metals. Lula is the leading figure of the Global South. Above all, it embodies a form of political backwardness and dependence on China. In this sense, Brazil is the future. That of Europe in decline.
