It was finally at the last minute that Qatari diplomacy intervened to avoid a return to war when Donald Trump announced two days ago the imminence of new bombings on Iran. For weeks, announcements of an agreement between the United States and Iran have been coming one after the other, alternating between hope and disillusionment. But this time, a major difference appears. If a compromise seems within reach today, it is neither thanks to Washington alone, nor thanks to the Pakistanis.
The only actor that has really mobilized recently is Qatar and this has played out in the last few days. If Doha has also paid a lot economically for this war with the attack on the Ras Laffan refinery by Iran, the petromonarchy knows it is in everyone’s interest to still discuss with Iran. This is why Qatar never retaliated.
While the war has lasted for more than a hundred days and none of the initial objectives have been achieved, Doha has resumed its traditional role of regional mediator because it speaks to both belligerents and this is its strength in the current context. Less than forty-eight hours ago, a delegation chaired by the Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs urgently went to Tehran in order to extract the last elements of a compromise. This discreet diplomacy, far from the cameras, once again made it possible to unblock a situation that no one else seemed capable of changing. The first elements have just filtered in this direction. If the agreement comes to fruition very soon, Trump will owe Doha a debt of gratitude.
An essential contact
For more than twenty years, Qatar has become the essential interlocutor for the most complex crises in the Middle East. From negotiations with the Taliban to prisoner exchanges between Washington and Tehran, from discussions on Gaza to multiple channels of dialogue with the Islamic Republic, Doha has established itself as the only actor capable of speaking to all parties. Today, it is the only country in the region to simultaneously maintain a dialogue of trust with the United States and with Iran. It is precisely this unique ability to speak to the two belligerents that makes Qatar the essential mediator in this crisis.
If Washington is ready to negotiate and above all no longer has a choice, it is also because the Gulf monarchies no longer want this war. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar have all paid a high economic price: slowing investment, rising shipping costs and uncertainties for their major diversification projects. Even Abu Dhabi, once in favor of a very hard line against Tehran, now knows that permanent confrontation will only produce losers. Their priority is simple: regain stability and restart business.
Behind the major geopolitical considerations, something is obvious: the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened sustainably, maritime routes must be secured and oil, gas and capital can circulate normally. Iran itself has an interest in this. It is this convergence of interests that Qatar has managed to transform into real diplomatic leverage.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government defends a strategy of maximum pressure aimed at lastingly weakening the Islamic Republic
If this agreement is successful, it will not only be a diplomatic victory for Doha: all the Gulf countries will be the main beneficiaries, finally finding the stability essential to their economic development and their regional ambitions.
The scenario that seems to be emerging is that of a provisional agreement allowing discussions to resume without immediately resolving the most sensitive issues, notably Iranian nuclear power. No one seriously imagines that Tehran will quickly give up what it considers its main strategic guarantee. On the other hand, a commitment to navigation safety in the Gulf appears much more realistic.
There remains one actor who views this development with much more suspicion and is trying to sabotage the agreement: Israel. Since the start of the conflict, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu has defended a strategy of maximum pressure aimed at lastingly weakening the Islamic Republic. This line now comes up against the interests of the Gulf monarchies, who above all wish to close this military parenthesis. There is therefore a real risk of seeing Israel seek to slow down, weaken, or even sabotage a compromise that does not correspond to its strategy. Some of its leaders remain in a die-hard logic consisting of continuing the confrontation rather than accepting a return to dialogue.
*Sébastien Boussois is a doctor in political science, media consultant, researcher in international relations associated with the CNAM Paris (Defense Security Team) and the Geostrategic Observatory of Geneva (Switzerland) and director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE).
