World trade routes are certainly affected by the war in Iran, in particular with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which accounts for 11% of international maritime trade. But this entry point into the Persian Gulf does not constitute a strategic supply zone for France and Europe. Access to the Persian Gulf for commercial ships primarily penalizes the countries of the Arabian Peninsula which massively import consumer goods, medicines, equipment, etc. from Asia, and particularly from India.
Armateurs de France, the professional organization of French transport and maritime services companies, reports that barely around sixty ships under French interest are currently blocked in the area, out of a fleet of 1,200 vessels. To the point that Laurent Martens, general delegate of Armateurs de France, speaks of impact “negligible”at this stage, on the commercial supply of France and most of Europe, even if it causes “a bit of disruption in the supply chain”.
The strongest impact concerns the transport of hydrocarbons
For CMA CGM, one of the world leaders in maritime freight, the impact on its fleet is limited: only around fifteen of its ships are currently blocked in the Hormuz zone, with instructions to “take shelter”. The urgency is to ensure the protection of its 6,000 employees present in the Gulf region, at sea and on land. Its subsidiary CEVA Logistics, a warehouse operator on behalf of retail giants like Amazon, has stopped its activities in the Gulf countries and recommended that its employees prioritize sheltering above all else.
In addition to the French shipowner’s fourteen ships, a total of around forty container ships are currently blocked in the region and must protect themselves from Iran’s retaliation, with most activating jamming of their location systems to avoid being targeted. In this context and in the short term, in the coming weeks we will have to manage the disruption of commercial maritime routes and guard against the risk of congestion around the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the area of Oman, to the south, which could become the main unloading port in the region.
The most significant impact therefore concerns the transport of hydrocarbons and LNG (liquefied natural gas), of which the Gulf countries provide 20% of global supplies: 130 supertankers are thus blocked around the Strait of Hormuz, forced to take “refuge” after an American ship was hit by an Iranian missile. As storage capacities in producing countries are limited and infrastructure is targeted by Iranian missiles, increasing production to contain the rise in the price of black gold does not constitute an effective response. The price of oil reached its highest level in a year and a half, at 88 dollars per barrel this Friday, and could pass the 100 mark during the week if the war continues, with cascading effects on all economic sectors, and therefore on world trade.
