A historic event is being prepared on the European continent, at the crossroads of tensions and symbols, while all the spotlights have been on the Middle East for several weeks. In the meantime, the war continues between the Russians and the Ukrainians and continues to get bogged down. While Russian President Vladimir Putin is the subject of an international arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, he is preparing, according to several corroborating sources, to set foot on European soil again to meet the American president again.
And it is not in Berlin, Paris or Brussels that he could appear, but in Budapest, the central and contested city of a fractured European Union, led by a Viktor Orban more isolated than ever, but still faithful to his sovereignist and pro-Russian line. Could peace in Europe be signed in Europe, which would be normal? The announcement took everyone by surprise: Donald Trump himself confirmed on his social networks that he would meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest, under the aegis of Orbán. A diplomatic initiative that looks like a coup de théâtre, but also an arm of honor to institutional Europe.
This trip, if confirmed, would be more than a simple bilateral meeting: it would be a major geopolitical turning point, perhaps more than the summit in Alaska, at a time when the war of attrition in Ukraine continues and when the Western powers seem exhausted, divided and disillusioned. Trump, faithful to his transactional logic, wants to pose as a peacemaker also on this complex issue. Orban plays the role of the impossible mediator, the one who dares to do what others no longer even imagine: reaching out to Moscow in the heart of Europe, at the very moment when accusations of spying by Brussels for the benefit of Budapest are multiplying.
Trump, the unpredictable peace activist
We can love or hate Donald Trump, but we cannot deny his spectacular return to the center of the global game. The Europeans complain then end up welcoming Trump’s relentlessness. For months, he has been increasing the signals of openness towards Russia and Ukraine, reviving his old dream: resolving major conflicts outside multilateral institutions, without bureaucracy, without moral compromise, but with efficiency. After announcing his peace plan for Ukraine – a mix of promises of neutrality, a territorial freeze and economic guarantees – Trump is continuing his diplomatic offensive to secure an agreement.
From the outside, everything seems improvised, provocative, outrageous, even amateurish. But behind the apparent chaos, there is a strategy: reinstalling the United States at the center of the conflict resolution, by bypassing the European Union and marginalizing international institutions. NATO, for him, must no longer be a constraint but a lever at his service. Putin, despite everything, remains a useful interlocutor because he is the only one. And Orban, an ideal host: member of the European Union but friend of Moscow, bridge between two worlds, he embodies this gray zone where Trump likes to wade and negotiate.
The Ukrainian standoff and the Zelensky card
Meanwhile, the impasse between Russians and Ukrainians is deeper than ever. The counter-offensives bog down, losses accumulate, and public opinion grows tired of this conflict. It will be increasingly difficult for member states to pass new financial and military support to kyiv. It is in this context that Volodymyr Zelensky is received today, October 17, at the White House, for a crucial meeting with Trump’s advisors and Republican officials. This informal tête-à-tête could mark a shift, especially since Trump has shown encouraging signs in favor of the Ukrainian President, which can reassure the European camp: the Ukrainian president is seeking to ensure that Washington will not abandon kyiv, while the voices in favor of direct negotiation are increasing.
If the meeting between Trump and Putin actually takes place, it will mark a historic turning point for Europe
Trump observes and gauges. He knows that time is against Ukraine, but also against Putin. His vision is clear: to forge an agreement “win-lose” which allows Moscow to save face, while redesigning a regional order “acceptable” for Washington. And preventing the worst from happening to Ukraine over time. It’s better to lose a little now than to lose everything later. This is not moral diplomacy, it is utilitarian diplomacy, brutal, but which appeals to a part of the world tired of the sterile postures of human rights.
Budapest, theater of parallel diplomacy
The prospect of a Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest clearly upsets European capitals. Orban is playing with fire. How can we accept that a head of state targeted by an international mandate can be received on Union soil without an official reaction? How can we accept that the president of a member country, Viktor Orban, serves as a transmission belt between the Kremlin and the American populist right? The recently revealed affair of Russian spies present on Hungarian territory sheds a worrying light on the opaque connections between Budapest and Moscow.
But for Orban, it is revenge: he once again becomes a central actor, the one who dares to dialogue when others look away in Europe. And for Trump, it’s a dream scene – a divided Europe, where he can set himself up as the savior of peace, as a counterpoint to European leaders who have been powerless for three years.
Yes. At a time when European chancelleries seem resigned while continuing to provide support to kyiv, Donald Trump wants to be the only one to still believe in a possible peace, even imperfect, even unjust. “Peace at all costs”he says, and the slogan resonates in a continent that has lost the habit of believing in it. Even to the detriment of Ukraine to whom he will offer compensation and guarantees, particularly in terms of defense.
If the meeting between Trump and Putin actually takes place, it will mark a historic turning point for Europe: not only a challenge to international law, but also a cruel reminder of its diplomatic erasure.
*Sébastien Boussois is a doctor in political science, consultant, researcher in geopolitics, scientific collaborator at CNAM Paris and director of the IGE (European Geopolitical Institute).
