The negotiations between the United States and Iran, which began yesterday in the Pakistani capital, prove the feat achieved by Pakistan, which snatched at the last minute a two-week truce between the two belligerents on April 7. The Iranian delegations (led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi) and American delegations (led by Vice-President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner) exchange messages transmitted by Pakistani officials between two rooms at the Serena Hotel. On the program: two opposing visions which will have to agree on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the supervision of the uranium enrichment program, the lifting of American sanctions imposed on Tehran.
Distrust, skepticism, uncertainties: Pakistan is betting big on the outcome of these negotiations. Its diplomatic initiative – carried out with China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – since the start of the conflict in Iran is not just a question of prestige. Its economy, defense, national security and interfaith harmony depend on it. “Pakistan’s role in this crisis is dictated by very strong security and economic realities. Instability in Iran has direct consequences »warns analyst Maria Sultan, president of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute University, in Islamabad.
Three major risks for Pakistan
First, restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz block energy supplies to Pakistan, where 80% of crude oil imports and 95% of gas pass through this passage. “It is an economic catastrophe for Islamabad which has just emerged from an IMF program which narrowly avoided bankruptcy. Even if since March 18, Iran has allowed certain Pakistani ships to cross the strait, each additional day of conflict worsens an already critical situation.points out Abdullah Khan, director general of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies in Islamabad.
Then: a border of almost 900 kilometers with Iran on either side of Balochistan where the separatists of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) continue to operate. For this analyst, “Growing instability in Iran could create “ungoverned spaces” along the border that has long served as a corridor for separatist groups and jihadist networks. Pakistan, which is already at war with the Taliban on its Afghan border, cannot open a second front.”
Pakistan did not stand alone in
mediator
Finally, with 40 million Shiites on its soil (the second largest Shiite population in the world after Iran), Islamabad fears that an escalation of the conflict will revive Sunni-Shiite tensions. The day after the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, several pro-Iranian demonstrations broke out in the country (storming of the American consulates in Karachi and Lahore, UN buildings burned in Skardu, etc.), leaving nearly 30 dead and 120 injured in three days. “Groups like the Liwa Zainebiyoun (Shiite militia created and financed by the Revolutionary Guards and composed mainly of Pakistanis recruited to fight in Syria alongside Iran, Editor’s note) are seeing their space reopen. When Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Munir, summoned Shiite ulama on March 20, warning them that “violence in Pakistan, based on incidents occurring in another country, will not be tolerated,” he recognized the seriousness of the domestic risk. continues Abdullah Khan.
Pakistan did not act alone as a mediator: it called on its Chinese ally. On March 31, the Minister of Foreign Affairs met his counterpart in Beijing because he knows that China (Tehran’s first trading partner) is the great power capable of encouraging Iran to negotiate. Alone, Islamabad has neither the economic weight nor the strategic relationship with Tehran sufficient to guarantee that Washington will keep its commitments. “For Iran, to have China as guarantor is probably the sine qua non condition for talks with the United States”estimates Vali Nasr, former senior official at the US State Department.
Another reason: Pakistani mediation, coupled with Chinese support, inflicts a diplomatic setback on New Delhi, Pakistan’s great rival. “If Pakistan can talk to Iran, host meetings with three Middle Eastern powers and preserve its ties with China while maintaining its relationship with the Trump administration, this constitutes a humiliating failure for India as it seeks to diplomatically isolate Islamabad”analyzes Sushant Singh in the journal Foreign Policy.
The trap of the Saudi pact
If the Iranian-American talks break down and Pakistan fails in its mediation, it will weaken its image as a “diplomatic pivot” and plays its stability. Because in addition, the strategic mutual defense pact signed with Riyadh in September 2025 is a sword of Damocles over Islamabad: if Iran intensifies its strikes on Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will be forced to choose. Fahd Husain, a leading Pakistani journalist, sums it up: “That would be the worst-case scenario for Pakistan, and I think Saudi Arabia understands that too. This would mean that all diplomatic efforts are dead and buried and that the conclusion will be played out on the battlefield. »
