For some time now, this war has been as if no one wanted it anymore. It has something cursed for all the protagonists. For Iran because despite the control exercised over the Strait of Hormuz, it is not exactly the great return to the concert of nations. For Donald Trump because the American president is stuck, without being able to put an end to the conflict he started. For Benyamin Netanyahu, because the great hopes raised by the entry into war against Iran of the United States, side by side with Israel, did not result in a fall of the Iranian regime. At the same time, Israel’s popularity in the United States has declined significantly and its special relationship with its Middle Eastern ally is going through a very difficult patch.
The war started again this week on the decision of Donald Trump, Tomahawk missiles against ballistic missiles and drones. Americans and Iranians did not go easy, the former hitting the latter and the latter again hitting their neighbors who host the bases of the former. The fog of war means that we do not know the ultimate outcome very well. Everyone has their own martial speech. Barely had the first waves of missiles been launched, Donald Trump promised to strike again very hard on Thursday evening. For its part, Iran considers that the ceasefire is almost obsolete. Trump’s obsession with Iranian nuclear power is no longer there, and it’s new. The American president has moved on to another of his obsessions: oil. He says he seized quantities thanks to his blockade. Impossible to verify. He now says he is considering taking Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil terminal. “like we seized Venezuelan oil”.
In the obvious impasse in which the American president finds himself, Donald Trump likes to recall the past glory of his elite troops who kidnapped Nicolas Maduro and turned Venezuela into the American camp. In an interview Thursday night on Fox News, Trump admitted he doesn’t know if it will work with Kharg. More precisely, he says: “I don’t know if the Americans have the appetite for this type of operation. » The whole problem is there. Donald Trump is well aware that his war is unpopular. At the same time, he knows very well that, to win, he would have to take Kharg and the other islands of the Persian Gulf. Yes, but for that you have to go through the box “ground troops”. And after Afghanistan and Iraq, the Americans no longer want it. A blitz would be ideal. But Donald Trump cannot guarantee it. So he pays himself with words.
We sense that, very quickly, he will return to the “deal” phase and say for the 39th time, someone has counted, since the start of the conflict, that we are on the eve of an agreement, the best agreement, obviously. Ideally, deep down, Trump would like to be able to leave, to leave the field. This is what Joe Kent, his resigning head of counterterrorism, constantly recommends to him, through untimely tweets. Leave and leave everything, the strait, the Iranians with their toll, and the Israelis, “alone against Iran” as Trump promised Netanyahu in a fit of anger towards the Israeli Prime Minister.
The American president knows that he was drawn into this war by Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio, the two hawks in his administration. The rest were more doubtful from the start. Especially JD Vance but also Tulsi Gabbard, his head of intelligence, who has also just given up her apron.
Thursday, June 11, around 7 p.m. French time, while the mood is gloomy in Washington, a new twist occurs. But how many have there been since February 28, the date the war started? “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been taken to the highest level of the Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, canceled the planned strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. The discussions and final points were, both conceptually and in detail, agreed upon by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The naval blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized. The time and location of the signing will be announced shortly »writes Trump on his Truth Social network.
To obtain his agreement, Trump would have agreed to let go
Most observers have taken to commenting on Trump’s bouts of digital fever with distance, if not ignoring them. However, this latest message seems more structured than the previous ones. Above all, he cites all the parties involved in the negotiation, or rather the negotiation project, we should say. We could almost believe it, even if nothing filters from the content of the agreement, if there is an agreement. The fog of war remains thick. An Iranian source close to the negotiations affirms that there is currently no document of any kind produced by the Americans and which would have been approved by the Iranians. We then believe we are reliving what we have experienced many times since the ceasefire, a Trump who anticipates what is being negotiated, and speaks indiscriminately at any microphone that is in his path.
On the Israeli side, they also claim to have no knowledge of an agreement and to be surprised by what Trump is saying about an “conceptual plan, approved by all parties involved”. However, we know that even if Trump tends to take his wishes as reality, there has been significant progress around the mechanism for releasing Iran’s frozen assets, the most important issue for the Iranians. Discussions also continue around arrangements for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during the sixty-day ceasefire period.
Finally, discussions have still not concluded on how negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program will be conducted. Remember that on this last point, to reach the Vienna agreement in 2015, negotiations lasted a year and a half. It is also rumored that to obtain his agreement at all costs, Donald Trump finally agreed to release ballast on the stock of enriched uranium that Tehran possesses. He would no longer require it to be sent outside the country. It was a prohibitive request for Mojtaba Khamenei himself, whom Trump also said he was ready to meet.
