The news came as a blow to the Ukrainian president. True to form when it comes to negotiations with the Americans, Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to honor the meeting planned in Ankara with Steve Witkoff, the negotiator of Donald Trump. But the latter canceled it, Zelensky having indicated that it was out of the question to discuss the new peace plan concocted by the United States because for Ukraine it resembled a capitulation. It must be said that this plan is first and foremost the result of secret negotiations orchestrated for several weeks by Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev.
The latter speaks of the “spirit of Anchorage”, the one that animated the meeting last August of the American and Russian presidents. This plan in fact gives pride of place to Moscow’s two main demands to stop the war: the recognition of Crimea and the total takeover of Donbass. In exchange, Ukraine and Europe would be protected by the Americans in the event of a new attack by Russia, without the terms of this aid being specified. Zelensky had in his baggage another plan, prepared with his European allies, in which the latter would be included in the negotiations. For the Americans, this is out of the question. Hence the cancellation of the meeting by Witkoff, with Trump’s agreement.
Trump shows his impatience to see the conflict end
In the observation made by the White House in the preamble to the new plan, there is first of all the idea that the part of Donbass that Russia would obtain, i.e. 15% of the Donetsk oblast still under the control of kyiv, will sooner or later be lost by Ukraine. The current evolution of the front goes in this direction. The loss of Pokrovsk, despite the colossal military efforts made by Ukraine to keep this key city in its main line of defense east of the Dnieper, was not enough to convince Donald Trump. With this 28-point plan, the latter returns to the charge and demonstrates his impatience to see the conflict end. Concretely, the territory lost by Ukraine would return to Russia, but it would not be occupied by it. It would act as a demilitarized zone, in the manner of the no man’s land between the two Koreas.
The other fronts, Kherson and Zaporizhia, would be frozen, and Russia undertakes to return the parts of Ukraine it occupies in Kharkov, Sumy and the Dnipro oblast. Another point which raises controversy: the Ukrainian army would be reduced by half, limited to 400,000 soldiers. Membership in NATO is no longer even mentioned, as it now seems irrelevant, considered by the Russians as the main reason for their entry into the war. The United States and the international community would recognize Russian sovereignty over Donbass and Crimea, but Ukraine would not be obliged to do so to avoid putting Zelensky in a delicate position vis-à-vis his own people. The Ukrainian president is going through an area of acute turbulence, with the revelation by anti-corruption bodies of a scandal involving electricity bribes received by his ministers. The affair has reached his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and it is rumored that it could well reach him too. This is very bad timing, in a context where Ukrainians are suffering from electricity shortages due to massive Russian drone attacks, as winter approaches.
Volodymyr Zelensky finds himself weakened, despite strong signs of support from his European partners, such as the signing last week of a letter of intent between France and Ukraine relating, among other things, to the delivery of a hundred Rafale fighters. The virtual nature of these commitments and their distant deadline make them appear more like a communications operation than massive, concrete support. The Russians, for their part, have the impression that their point of view is finally being taken into account by the Americans, at a time when they have a clear advantage on the ground. “President Trump believes there is now a chance to end this meaningless war if some flexibility is shown on both sides”declared a White House official to the media Axios.
For the moment, kyiv has reacted by sticking to its past positions
Washington expected Zelensky’s reaction. To put pressure on him, the United States explained their plan to the Europeans, hoping to convince them to adopt it. “We think this is a good plan. But both parties must now be realistic and prioritize the practical aspect.explains the White House. The only question that remains is: Is Ukraine in a position to oppose the US peace plan? Washington sent a Pentagon delegation to kyiv on Thursday made up of Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll, Chief of Staff Randy George and US Commander for Europe Chris Donahue. The presence of the latter is fundamental: it is he who, since February 2022, has piloted American military support for Ukraine from Wiesbaden, Germany. Having enabled the Ukrainian army to valiantly resist the Russians until today, he enjoys great confidence among his Ukrainian interlocutors.
A freezing of the forehead
For the moment, kyiv, through Defense Minister Denys Chmyhal, is sticking to its past positions. “We focused on the next steps to implement the historic agreement reached between President Zelensky and President Trump”Chmyhal wrote on X, before thanking Washington for the delivery of new Patriot air defense missiles. In the eyes of the minister, the Ukrainian position lies in a freeze of the front and in security guarantees from the United States. Nowhere is there any mention of any transfer of territories. But will disguising a withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from Donbass to establish a demilitarized zone make this outcome more acceptable? A war is won on the ground. Ukraine no longer seems able to do this, and the presence of American soldiers in kyiv is there to remind them of this.
Another sign that, this time, the Americans are determined to force kyiv to get behind their plan is the decision of Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for Ukraine, to leave his post next January. Presented by the person concerned as the natural end of his mission, this decision seals the departure of the best defender of Ukrainian interests with Donald Trump.
