Faced with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump was starting to lack ammunition. After the seduction phase, from promises of cooperation to dreams of ice hockey competitions and even the construction of a Trump Tower in Moscow, the American president quickly felt that he was in the history of history. Negotiation, he knows it perfectly, can only be done when you are in a position of strength.
However, whether on the military field, where Russia advances irreparably, or on those of diplomacy and the economy, where the West remains unable to isolate its opponent, Donald Trump was gradually reduced to resuming the posture of Joe Biden, between unconditional aid to Ukraine and preparation of yet another pack of sanctions including the American President, of his own admission.
Ineffective sanctions
“The Russians are very good to bypass the sanctions”he said. Nevertheless, Donald Trump in no way wants to appear as the Quebecur of a peace he has promised to the whole world, and especially to his voters. So he put himself at the head to first strike Moscow at the wallet, that is to say at the level of hydrocarbons.
The Moscow financial windfall involves the flow of its oil to China and India (which also resells it to the West) via the famous “ghost” fleet of ships under pavilions of complacency. The opacity of this traffic does not escape anyone. Donald Trump, failing to target Moscow (trade between Russia and the United States are derisory), decided to hit New Delhi. India has therefore seen duplicating customs tariffs on its goods for the United States.
Nothing guarantees the effectiveness of such a measure. When he decides to send his faithful negotiator Steve Witkoff to Moscow last Wednesday, Trump means that if America shows the muscles, this does not prohibit dialogue. The meeting still reflects a form of exasperation towards a conflict that Trump would like to get rid of.
The two leaders want to show that they are the masters of the game
What was his surprise when Steve Witkoff called him to tell him that Putin was willing to meet him head on as soon as possible. Donald Trump hastened to accept the proposal, provided “May this meeting lead to the end of the war”. This kind of declaration conveniently erases an untenable ultimatum and allows a commitment at a minimum.
Towards a tripartite meeting?
“We have a lot of friends who are ready to help us organize this type of event. One of them is the president of the United Arab Emirates. I think we will decide, but it would be one of the appropriate places ”said Vladimir Putin in front of journalists, alongside President Emirati Mohammed Ben Zayed, whom he received at the Kremlin. A few days earlier, the Russian president had, as if by chance, posed his conditions when the conflict is stopped.
In fact, he had only reiterated his two main requirements: withdrawal from the Ukrainian army from the enclaves of the four Oblasts of the East that Russia occupies, and the final abandonment of any inclination to join NATO. Putin could not ignore the ultimatum launched by Trump to end the war and who expired on Saturday. The meeting proposal is a boon to make people forget the discord and allow Russia to continue its offensive for some time. The fact remains that Iouri Ouchakov, former Russian ambassador to the United States and one of the main negotiators, said that the Russians received “An offer from the president Trump that we consider acceptable”.
No one can believe that peace is the outcome of this tête-à-tête. She represents a gift made to Vladimir Putin by a Donald Trump who is not naive, but has long wanted to show that he alone can put an end to the conflict. On the ground, the fall of Tchassiv Iar and the programmed encirclement of Pokrovsk are the signs that the Russians are close to the goal. By displaying each other together, the two leaders will be able to prove to the world that they are the masters of the game in Ukraine by notoriously dismissing Europe, as the Tsar Alexander of Russia and Napoleon had done so for Austria and Prussia after the battle of Friedland, by signing, in July 1807, the Tilsit Treaty. Volodymyr Zelensky understood this, which has renewed its call to associate Europe with negotiations and its desire to meet Vladimir Putin alone.
If the Trump-Putin meeting takes place, it is likely that, in a second step, a tripartite meeting including Ukraine will make him follow up. Volodymyr Zelensky then will then return to kyiv and politically survive territorial concessions and an end of the arranged war where Russia can scream victory? Nothing is less certain …
