Never, since 2011, this hidden conflict had experienced such magnitude. Armed fighting involving heavy artillery and air strikes left almost 40 dead. Some 140,000 Thai people were evacuated from the fighting area, as well as thousands of Cambodians on the opposite side, with the closure of several hundred schools.
Bangkok established martial law and warned of a risk of war if the situation was getting worse. “We tried to find a compromise because we are neighbors, but we gave the Thai army to act immediately in an emergency”Recalled the acting Thai Prime Minister on Friday, July 25, Phumtham Wechayachai. If the Cambodian ambassador to the UN, Chhea Keo, asked “An immediate, unconditional ceasefire with peaceful conflict resolution”Thailand leaves the door open to negotiations with Malaysia as possible intermediary.
An escalation how far? “The situation should eventually calm down. Neither Thailand nor Cambodia have an interest in that this conflict widens. It is a safe bet that once the political objectives have been achieved, the status quo will return ”estimates David Camroux, researcher at CERI Sciences-Po.
At the origin of the conflict: a dispute over the 840 kilometers of border drawn by the French in 1907. The catalyst? The temple of Preah Vihear, a vestige of the Khmer Empire granted to Cambodia. An arbitration that stirs up the anger of the Thai neighbor. “It is an above all symbolic litigation which, for the two countries, serves to recall the glorious past and to assert nationalist pride”specifies the specialist at the microphone of France 24. Beyond the symbol, Thailand still disputes a strip of 4.6 km² land around the sanctuary. Losing this area would also mean losing a strategic observation point for the safety of its northeast border and an economic windfall linked to tourism.
In Thailand, power is in the hands of the army
Since the start of the conflict on July 24, the two countries have been rejecting the fault. A showdown where none wants to lose face. Because the border crisis is also played on the domestic political field. In Cambodia, the young Prime Minister Hun Manet (son of the Hun Sen autocrat, who transferred power to 2023) must establish his legitimacy. His firmness towards Thailand could strengthen popular and military support around his person. “Hun Sen may seek to strengthen his son’s position by stirring nationalism”believes Matt Wheeler, the analyst of International Crisis Group.
On the Thai side, the Prime Minister has just been suspended from her duties for poor management of the border file. Power is now in the hands of an interim cabinet dominated behind the scenes by the army. In this context, displaying intransigence against Cambodia can serve political interests in Bangkok as in Phnom Penh.
