In Israel, alarm signals are multiplying. For several weeks, experts have been concerned about the new regional balance that has emerged. After Israeli bombings on Damascus, the new posture taken by the Hebrew state in the region arouses the growing hostility of its neighbors, starting with Turkey, now perceived as a more direct threat than Iran. The observation made consensus since Recep Tayyip Erdogan has considerably hardened the tone. The Turkish president, ally of the Syrian authorities, accuses Israel “of using the Druze as a pretext for his illegal action” in Syria and of having “sabotaged” the truce concluded between government forces and Druzes in Soueida, in the south of the country.
Remarks made after a telephone exchange with the new Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Charaa, alias Abou Mohammed al-Joulani. For Turkey, Syria’s stability is a strategic priority. In this equation, Israel is perceived as the main obstacle when the Hebrew state tries by all means to limit the influence of Erdogan, an active support of the Islamist coalition now at the controls of Syria. Israel fears a sustainable implantation of pro-Turkish forces in the South Syrian, near its northern border, while its army multiplies the preventive strikes to keep the Syrian troops, their Iranian allies and, now, the close factions of Ankara.
Gaza in the center of tensions
“It is however in the interest of Israel that Al-Joulani controls the entire Syrian territory, including the army, because otherwise, the Iranians will try to rebuild their capacities in the South”explains Ofer Guterman, researcher at the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. For him, Turkey benefits from a moment of weakness from Iran: “The Iranians are no longer in the game,” he says. Their nuclear program has been struck, Hezbollah has been weakened since the war. Erdogan knows it and he sees Syria as a unique opportunity to strengthen its military weight and derive economic benefits from it. He wants to rearm the new Syrian forces and weigh in reconstruction. »»
A strategic calculation that could affect Israeli interests. “The fact that the United States, especially under Trump, considered Turkey as a partner remains, from an Israeli point of view, bad news. Today, Ankara develops a strategy resolutely hostile to Israel, in particular on Gaza ”continues the researcher.
Erdogan supports the Islamist coalition in power in Syria
In this context, Israel is trying to assert its influence. “The first option is to attack all these attempts by air strikeshe specifies, By clearly affirming that we will not allow them to be there. »» The other, more diplomatic, goes through Washington. Problem, according to the researcher: “Today, no direct line exists between Israel and the Turks. But discussions are only possible through the White House. »» A clear refusal of Ankara, which poses its conditions. “Turkey has said to us: We will only negotiate one condition, the end of the war in Gaza. It is now an imperative “he judges.
Israel thus remains attentive to the new axis that Turkey is trying to build: an axis deemed dangerous, involving the Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar and Hamas. This dynamic, according to them, directly threatens regional stability. This is why the Hebrew state seeks to establish clear rules of the game with Ankara. “From our point of view, we do not allow Turkey to deploy in Syria, especially south of Damascus. We want the Trump administration to reduce its influence in the region by rearming the new Syrian forces rather than supporting Turkey, the Tangwall Campagin explains a high Israeli rank. For us, Erdogan’s ambition to strengthen its grip on Syria is a serious threat. »»
There is no shortage of disputes between Israel and Turkey, starting with the Palestinian issue. “Erdogan tries to rebuild the Turkey Empireadvance Kobi Marom, Israeli expert in national security. He seeks to strengthen his image of leader in the Sunni Islamic World, in rivalry with Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran. »» Ankara’s prudent posture seems to be over today and the anti -Zionist rhetoric of the Turkish president has hardened. Last provocation: Erdogan judged that images of famine in Gaza were “More brutal” than those of Nazi camps. And this is not the only concern.
“Turkey plays a role of silver passer towards Iransays Kobi Marom. This money, Iran then redistributes him to Hezbollah. »» A posture all the more paradoxical than Turkey, a member of NATO since 1952, still does not accept the existence of Israel. “Admittedly, there are no direct fights between our army and Turkeyhe analyzes, But it does threaten us. For the moment, it is a diplomatic war. But if our relations were still to deteriorate, then imagine: the conflict would be much larger than everything we have known in the past two years. »»
The withdrawal of the United States
“We have to coordinate with the White House a clear strategy concerning Turkey and Iran. And the number one priority is to allow Abu Mohammed al-Joulani to control the entire Syrian territory ”continues the expert. For him, relations with Ankara are deadlocked: “They have been execrable for ten years. Admittedly, we have good relations with officials of Turkish security, but Erdogan seeks to rebuild the Ottoman Empire and to lead the struggle for Palestine alongside the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. He considers himself as the heir to historical Palestine, formerly under Ottoman domination: for Israel, it is unacceptable. »»
“Erdogan considers himself as the heir to historical Palestine, formerly under Ottoman domination”
The problem, according to him, also comes from Washington. In recent months, the United States has withdrawn from a large part of Syrian territory. They were previously present in several northern areas, notably in the Kurdish regions. Israel had asked the Americans to stay, to guarantee a minimum of stability. Their departure, on the contrary, is likely to excite Turkish appetite: Erdogan wants to strengthen his presence in Syria, and in particular to increase his military establishment near the Israeli border, a red line for the Hebrew State.
“We are not involved in Syria. This country faces its own difficulties. He does not need our intervention ”said the American president. “Why is Trump withdraw from the Kurdish region and leave the field free to Turkey?” »» We wonder about Israel, who would have liked to support the Kurds, but considers that this role goes first to the American administration. “We cannot intervene. We already have seven open fronts, we fight everywhere, decides a high -ranking Israeli officer. We have enough problems here. We are already fighting for the Druzes … It’s not tenable. We cannot protect all minorities in the Middle East. »» In the meantime, Israel finds himself a little more isolated every day.
