Last week, we understood that the Franco-German couple was in trouble. With his dream of Eurobonds, Emmanuel Macron took a hit. His plan for a new joint loan was greeted in Berlin with sarcasm. The two countries have entered a lasting crisis which the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni, described as follows: “We are experiencing the end of a European illusion. » The illusion of cheap energy, thanks to Russian gas; it’s over. The illusion of a Chinese market open without limit to our exports; it’s over. The illusion of security provided by the United States is over.
Moreover, for at least a year, we have no longer been talking about the Franco-German engine but rather about “strategic partnership between Germany and Italy”. The time when General de Gaulle and Chancellor Adenauer sealed the reconciliation of the two nations is long gone. It was January 22, 1963, in Paris…
Ten years later, under the mandates of Giscard and Helmut Schmidt, observers spoke for the first time of “Franco-German couple”. Since Maastricht, everything has changed, Germany has taken control of the key institutions of the Union. She is the one who, in the couple, wears the panties.
We no longer count the bones of discord. On each subject, it is Berlin which makes Paris bend. On energy, Germany will have done everything to destroy the comparative advantage of French nuclear power. The closure of Fessenheim responded to a long-standing German demand, carried out by Macron in 2019. The installation of wind turbines largely benefits German industry. As for the European electricity market, it was designed to favor the German system, in which gas represents 30% of the energy mix. By this device, confirmed by the new “multi-annual program”France finds itself forced to sell its electricity to households and businesses at a rate higher than its actual production costs.
On the question of trade and free trade, once again the mass is said. The guideline of all the free trade agreements negotiated by the European Commission with the rest of the world is very simple to understand and summarize: it involves widely opening the markets to sell German cars while sacrificing, in return, French agriculture.
And then, of course, there is the euro. The taboo of French political debate. We are on sacred territory. Any criticism is sacrilege. And yet, what is this common currency? Nothing other than a European mark, designed to strengthen Germany and weaken France. The divergence of French and German economic performances, both in terms of growth and trade balance, constitutes the most blatant demonstration of this. Today, France has a trade deficit of 100 billion euros per year and Germany, a surplus of 200 billion. Furthermore, several studies have shown that the euro gives Germany an increase in competitiveness of between 10 and 20%, while France suffers a penalty close to 25%.
In 2029, France’s military budget will be half that of Germany
Finally, there is the subject of defense: the European preference will be the German preference. I remember a confession from Jean-François Deniau, one of the drafters of the Treaty of Rome. He explained to me: “We did all this to swaddle Germany. » We don’t swaddle anything anymore.
Germany is rearming. The explosion of the German military budget promises to lead its defense industry into a dynamic that France will not be able to follow. In 2029, France’s military budget will be barely half that of Germany. The project “of European defense”with a common arms industry and the creation of a single defense market, aims to sell the production of the German military industry more easily. And now the German Chancellor expresses the wish to share nuclear weapons with France. Macron is ready to grant him “the two-finger button”. It’s madness.
In short, we left everything to the Germans. This is the first time since the Schuman Declaration that Europe thinks of itself, projects itself, outside of France. The idea of a Europe which would be an Archimedean lever – the idea of a French Europe – is dead. We made German Europe. Nice work!
