We would try to make it colder, we would not achieve it better than Karol Nawrocki. ” Madam “scribbled in nervous handwriting in blue pen on a typed letter, crosses the letterhead stamped with the coat of arms of the Koniecpolski Palace, seat of the Polish presidency. It looks like a recommendation from a trustee to a recalcitrant tenant. No one in Warsaw is unaware that the new conservative head of state harbors a deep mistrust of Germany: this widespread Germanophobia permeates Polish political life. By addressing Ursula von der Leyen, both Merkel’s former minister and the incarnation of Brussels, Nawrocki accomplished a double gesture: recalling his distrust of Berlin and teaching the European Union a lesson.
In his letter, he invokes a national consensus: “The majority of Poles, regardless of their political sympathies, oppose the forced relocation of migrants to Poland. » And recalls having made internal security a pillar of his campaign, citing “Angela Merkel’s historic decision in 2015” as the origin of the migratory chaos which is overwhelming Western Europe.
The start of the Visegrad countries
“Nawrocki defends Polish sovereignty and security”explains to Tangwall Campagin Dariusz Matecki, PiS deputy in the Diet, the president’s party. He accuses Berlin of “bringing illegal migrants into Poland without control or proof”while asserting that Germany “falsely claims that they come from our territory”. In his eyes, this situation is not a coincidence: it is the result of a political convergence between Donald Tusk, liberal Prime Minister and Nawrocki’s rival, and Ursula von der Leyen, both members of the European People’s Party.
Nawrocki’s letter is part of a broader dynamic. It marks the start of a central European bloc which now collectively displays its opposition to von der Leyen. The Visegrad countries (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and undoubtedly soon, with the return of Andrej Babis, the Czech Republic) are closing ranks in the face of community injunctions.
Together, these four rebels represent 62 million Europeans, more than the population of Italy, and all are preparing to turn their backs on the Migration and Asylum Pact, by refusing compulsory quotas and imposed distribution. Better to pay the fine of 20,000 euros per unwelcome migrant than to give in on their sovereignty.
This posture was not born yesterday. In 2020, the governments of the “V4” (as the members of the Visegrad Group are called) published a joint declaration rejecting the automatic relocation mechanism, demanding that priority be given to the control of the Union’s external borders, in particular that between Belarus and Poland.
Mitteleuropa without Berlin
Headliner of these insubordinates who challenge Brussels, Viktor Orban has never changed, he who has always ensured that Hungary “would protect its borders, not those of others”. In Slovakia, Prime Minister Robert Fico also stepped into the breach. Three weeks ago, on the 130th anniversary of the Marie-Valérie Bridge linking Sturovo, Slovakia, to Esztergom, Hungary, over the Danube, Fico warned: “No one should dictate our behavior!” » In Prague, the return of Andrej Babis could complete the strengthening of this feared front, determined to impose its interpretation of migratory sovereignty. The probable future Czech Prime Minister had described, during his electoral campaign, the pact of “insane” And “monstrous”.
Poland already welcomes more than a million Ukrainians
Behind this intransigence, there is a memory and a strategy. Memory first. That of 2015, when Angela Merkel, alone, opened the doors of Europe to Syrian refugees, a decision that the Visegrad countries have never digested. Memory also of German domination in the region, which the PiS has continued to denounce by demanding some 500 billion dollars in reparation for the destruction of the Second World War. By writing to von der Leyen, Nawrocki is also addressing the woman who was, for fourteen years, Merkel’s minister and therefore co-author of the policy of opening European borders. Strategy then, since it involves using the migration issue as a lever for a sovereignist assertion that goes beyond divisions.
Brussels already knows the legal terrain of this battle. In 2020, the Court of Justice of the European Union condemned Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for their refusal of mandatory quotas in 2015, considering that they had violated their community obligations. This time, the balance of power is different. The Visegrad front is less isolated, much more assured. The language of central European capitals has changed.
When Warsaw takes responsibility
Warsaw like Bratislava, having become solid economic students of the Union, no longer have to lower their eyes before the German giant. The early diplomatic timidity has given way to quiet, assertive disobedience. Nawrocki, in his letter with administrative, vertical accents, embodies this mutation. The Polish president does not discuss with von der Leyen, he notifies him of his decision like canceling a subscription. He does not seek compromise, he closes the door. By choosing to address this refusal to a German woman, a former minister of Merkel who became president of the Commission, he closes a historical loop. The Migration Pact was to symbolize European unity; it reveals a Europe fractured between those who submit and this bloc of contiguous countries which reject Brussels.
And Nawrocki can afford the luxury of refusing the migration pact: Poland already welcomes more than a million Ukrainian refugees. In some cities, they represent 20% of the population. Warsaw believes it has done its part: to others “show solidarity”. A refrain that several central European capitals are already taking up.
