Three years ago, Giorgia Meloni won the legislative elections and entered the Palazzo Chigi. At the head of a right-wing coalition since October 2022, the first head of government in Italian history has been able to offer the peninsula political stability and maintain broad popular support. A longevity that the president of the Council owes in part to his frank personality and his closeness to the Italian people, but above all to a set of clear and coherent political decisions, in all areas.
On the migration front, Giorgia Meloni has made the fight against illegal immigration her hobby horse. More than forty government decrees were issued on this subject between 2023 and 2024. But if Rome managed to reduce the number of illegal landings (from 157,651 in 2023 to 66,317 in 2024, a drop of almost 60%), Italy faces “a structuring problem” which forced it to change course, explains Gilles Gressani, director of Great Continent : the dizzying decline in the birth rate. A pebble in the boot, so to speak, “all the more problematic since Italy is the second industrial power in Europe after Germany”.
However, the current migratory balance no longer compensates for this demographic sinking; by 2027, Italy could lose 20% of its population. “Italy has a vital need for laborexplains the Italian intellectual. To compensate for this lack, Meloni had no choice but to review his copy and regularize further. She was convinced of this by several Italian associations and by the Italian Medef “. Result: between 2024 and 2025, nearly 450,000 visas were granted by Rome to foreign workers. A figure now revised upwards, “for realism” he adds.
A pronatalist policy to counter the demographic catastrophe
A woman of power and a claimed Christian with conservative values, Giorgia Meloni also intends to revive the sluggish Italian demographics to compensate for this lack of labor. An assumed pronatalist policy supported by concrete measures. “ On societal subjects and approach civilizationalMeloni is closer to Marion Maréchal and Éric Zemmour than to Marine Le Pen »points out Gilles Gressani.
On societal issues, Meloni is closer to Marion Maréchal and Éric Zemmour than to Marine Le Pen
Thus, the Italian government has initiated several pro-natalist measures, such as the reduction in VAT on items and services for early childhood, the creation of new places in crèches or even the exemption social contributions for mothers of at least two children. The Meloni camp was particularly illustrated last summer through a bill seeking to grant a “maternity income” of a thousand euros per month to Italian mothers for each new birth or adoption. A symbolic measure intended to reverse the curve. In this war waged against the drop in birth rates, the fight against abortion is also led by Meloni, who considers abortion as a ” defeat “.
Economy: saving stability despite structural ills
In economic matters, the stability that Giorgia Meloni was able to bring to the Italian political system has proven beneficial. “This has had a very positive effect, in particular on the financial markets, which have gradually regained confidence. This notably allowed Italy to see its rating raised by the rating agencies”analyzes Gilles Gressani. Added to this is a liberal tax policy: the 2025 budget, voted at the end of December, introduced tax reductions on households and businesses. The objective: to revive the purchasing power of the middle and working classes and revive the country’s economic growth.
This encouraging dynamic nevertheless comes up against the structural ills of the Italian economy, such as low productivity, a staggering debt, the departure abroad of qualified youth or a poverty rate that is still too high. “But Italy has this advantage of receiving more money from the European Union than it givesnotes the Italian author. A surplus that allows it to invest and increase its productivity. » Another black spot in the Italian economy: the dependence of the north of the country, peconomic oumon of the peninsula, to German industry, most parts being manufactured on the other side of the Alps. “The possible slowdown in the German economy, particularly in the automotive industry sector, risks having a direct impact on the industrial fabric of the Italian northeast”alert Gilles Gressani.
International scene: a clear anchor in the Western camp
Internationally, Giorgia Meloni has been proactive with her partners in the European Union and NATO, ensuring Italy’s unambiguous anchoring in the Western camp. On the European scene, Meloni imposes his own tempo. For Gilles Gressani, the head of the Italian government stood out on two fundamental points: “Support for Ukraine and convergence with the euro”. “Brussels and kyiv give it a certain stability” on the foreign and domestic scene, notes the Italian intellectual, according to whom this line is not the one that Meloni defended personally before, nor that of the nationalist political camp from which it comes. Now, if Meloni has always rejected the idea of a federal Europe and remains attached to a Europe of nations, it is banking on a shift to the right of European institutions on themes such as immigration and the environment, under the influence of the conservatives.
Brussels and kyiv allow Meloni to benefit from a certain stability
“A strategic turnaroundnotes Gilles Gressani, which Meloni assumes, to the extent that his main objective remains the consolidation of his parliamentary base. This is more about tactical intelligence than strategic ambition. »
Under Meloni, Rome also consolidated its ties with Washington. If the Atlanticist tradition is particularly strong in Italy, the head of government also plays her ideological proximity toith Donald Trump, particularly in the fight against illegal immigration and against wokism, to make his country a privileged European partner of the United States. But the brutal and unilateral trade policy pursued by the Trump administration, which does not spare Rome, divides Italian voters and weakens the ruling coalition: the League led by Salvini “is roughly pro-Trump and anti-EU”, summarizes Gilles Gressani, when Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia, “is more pro-euro and critical of Trump”. Support for kyiv also divides the two parties. Divergences which raise fears of a breakup of the coalition during the legislative elections of 2027.
“Unlike Donald Trump, who embodies a revolutionary right, Meloni does not propose radical ideological changesummary Gilles Gressani. It pursues more of a conservative and status quo Roman policy, its aim being above all to manage the crises that arise and to delay the downgrading of Italy.. It remains to be seen whether this cautious strategy will allow Giorgia Meloni to keep her place at Palazzo Chigi. Answer in 2027, after the legislative elections.
