The Israeli attack began at 8:15 a.m. Tel Aviv time on Saturday. A series of strikes targeting the Supreme Guide, executives of the Iranian regime and senior officers of the Revolutionary Guards gathered in a building in Tehran. That same evening, the death of Ali Khamenei was confirmed by the United States, as well as that of half a dozen top officials. If the loss of the Guide opens an era of uncertainty, it does not bode well for the end of the regime. Khamenei had already transferred the security apparatus to Ari Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme Security Council, a hardliner of the regime…
A major difference compared to the twelve-day war of June 2025, the American Tomakawk missiles also went into action from the start. Joint operation therefore, between Israelis and Americans, called “Epic Fury”, as if to indicate to those who still had doubts that these strikes will be anything but symbolic. Donald Trump Donald Trump did not take long to recognize this, immediately speaking of“major military operations in Iran”with three objectives: destroy the Iranian missile program and industry, destroy the Iranian navy, and finally permanently prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Three hours after the first strikes, Iran launched its response on Israel… The sound of the cannon had got the better of the negotiations.
These began between Americans and Iranians in Muscat, in the Sultanate of Oman, on April 12, 2025. They were interrupted at the time of the Israeli attack on Iran on June 3, then resumed three weeks ago. In the meantime, the United States has understood that it will not be able to strike Iran, with the chances of weakening its regime, without a substantial force positioned very close to Iranian territory. No less than two aircraft carriers, each with its own carrier group, arrived in the area, a deployment the likes of which the region had not seen since… precisely, Bush and Iraq. At the time, the intervention was described as a war of choice rather than necessity, which plunged the region into chaos and led to Daesh. Much of Trump’s hesitation in recent weeks has come precisely from a fear of making the same mistakes again.
“It’s the rule of the china shop. You break something. You pay for it. She’s yours »had warned Colin Powell before the invasion of Iraq. Donald Trump knows all this very well. He also knows that the midterm elections are here, with the Democrats waiting around the corner. If they won the House, they could trigger proceedings up to and including his impeachment. Some critical supporters of the president, such as Tucker Carlson, visited him to dissuade him from intervening in Iran. “No, Iran does not threaten US interests”repeats Carlson, explaining that it is Benjamin Netanyahu who wants this war. The Israeli Prime Minister has never hidden it. But the voter in the Midwest, Texas or Colorado did not elect Trump to behave like George Bush. Hence the choice, ultimately, to let Israel, apparently, start hostilities… Trump hates war. He doesn’t like seeing people die. He has said this many times in the case of Ukraine. Since his election, if we put aside the frantic and unaffected pursuit of American interests, he has continued to describe this conflict as absurd, and repeats ad nauseam that, if he had been in power, this war would never have taken place.
Washington demands the unthinkable
But he likes power. At the head of an army whose budget now exceeds 1,000 billion dollars, Trump could succumb to what can be described as crushing syndrome, a disease which consists of believing that if a country does not accept the “pax Americana”, a rain of shells will eventually make him listen to reason. From Vietnam to Iraq via Afghanistan, the overwhelming use of force has never resolved a situation, changed any regime, much less brought peace, freedom and democracy, concepts generally brandished to justify intervention.
While at the start of the week, rumors gave hope for a peaceful resolution of the thorny Iranian nuclear issue, a cold shower fell at the end of the last negotiating session, Thursday afternoon, in Geneva. American requests became demands. In the movie The Godfatherby Francis Ford Coppola, Don Corleone says: “I’m going to make him an offer he can’t refuse.” » Here, it’s the opposite. The Americans are making a proposal that the Iranians cannot accept. Destroy Fordo. Destroy Natanz. Destroy Isfahan, they say. Give us your entire stock, down to the last gram of enriched uranium. In exchange, you will only have minimal penalties. Iran’s counter-proposal, approved by Khamenei, was not long in coming. But it showed almost no change compared to the previous round, namely a suspension of enrichment for three to five years, increased monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a desire to dilute stocks, all accompanied by business offers described as attractive. Main point: Iran reaffirms its inflexibility on the only demand that Washington considers non-negotiable – the abandonment of enrichment on Iranian soil.
Tehran has repeatedly affirmed its readiness to face
To increase the pressure on Tehran, it is necessary to understand that each American request had a military equivalent already in place in the theater of operations. American demands demanded that Fordo be destroyed. Precisely, on February 24, twelve F-22 Raptor stealth planes landed on the Israeli base of Ovda, in the Negev desert. They were sent to destroy this site and muzzle Iranian air defense capabilities. The demands said to dismantle Natanz. The B-2s were in Whiteman, Missouri, ready to take off on the Diego Garcia Coral Runway in the Indian Ocean. They know the route. Last June, they were the ones who dropped the GBU-57 bombs which reached Natanz. The demands said to eliminate Isfahan. The Tomahawks on the two deployed carrier battle groups were scheduled for Isfahan.
Steve Witkoff announced the color on Wednesday, slipping that the Iranians were only a few weeks away from obtaining the atomic bomb. A sudden change in tone. For his part, Marco Rubio spoke of an Iranian threat to the United States itself. “It is clear that Iran will be able to develop weapons that could reach the continental United States. » As we moved towards the time of the final negotiations, it was as if American rhetoric became a copy and paste of that of the Bush administration during the Iraq era. “The Iraqi regime has violated all its obligations. It possesses and produces chemical and biological weapons. He’s looking for nuclear weapons. He has offered shelter and support to terrorism, and practices terror against his own people. »
These words were spoken on October 7, 2002 by a certain George W. Bush, then President of the United States of America, six months before a war that would last ten years, causing the deaths of 300,000 Iraqis and 4,500 American soldiers. Trump’s men shared the roles. In that of the wise old man, Vice-President JD Vance continued to affirm, in unison with the President, that he always preferred negotiation. But as the days passed, little phrases announced the sound of the cannon. “We have information which suggests that the Iranians are still pursuing the goal of acquiring a nuclear bomb”said Vance, in total contradiction with Rafael Grossi, the director of the IAEA, who claims to have observed no activity around nuclear centers since the American strikes last June.
Above all, Tehran has learned its lesson
Unusually, the top brass of the American army began to speak out. The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Dan Caine, himself expressed to Donald Trump his concerns regarding a prolonged military campaign against Iran. Two other officers, cited by the New York Timesestimate the American capacity to strike Iran at only seven to ten days’ worth of munitions. Not to mention the risk of human losses for the United States, but also for its allies in the region.
Tehran has repeatedly affirmed that it is ready to deal. This was not the case when the Twelve Day War against Israel began last year. Above all, Tehran has learned its lesson. In June 2025, the Israelis did not wait for the definitive failure of negotiations to strike. Trump’s hot and cold was absolutely no guarantee that the military option would only come as a last resort.
Moving on despite the risks
Faced with so much uncertainty, Vice-President JD Vance, who is increasingly at the forefront of the Iranian issue, has once again stepped up to the plate. Notoriously known for his reluctance to military interventions, he reaffirmed that there was no question that “the United States finds itself embroiled in an all-out war in the Middle East”. Way of indicating that if strikes did take place, negotiations aimed at forcing the Iranians to abandon their atomic dreams must continue. They were scheduled to continue next week, this time in Vienna. The mediator, the Omani Minister of Foreign Affairs, spoke of “significant progress”. He even spoke on Saturday, a few hours before the first strikes, on American television CBS, affirming that Iran agreed to abandon its enriched uranium as well as any nuclear ambition.
Trump will have chosen to overlook and accept the risks inherent in this type of operation. In the event of a prolongation of the conflict, in fact, the exhaustion of air defenses could place the American armada, its bases in the region, but also its embassies in a vulnerable position. In a Pentagon report, the “2025 Overmatch Brief”, a military simulation around Taiwan showed that Chinese hypersonic missiles had been capable of sending the jewel of the American navy, the USS Gerald R. Fordfrom the bottom. But today, the same Chinese CM-302 missiles have been sold to the Iranians, as well as electronic jamming systems capable of preventing F-35s from taking off from aircraft carriers.
Washington has more than a dozen warships in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers: theUSS Abraham Lincoln and theUSS Gerald R. Fordthe largest aircraft carrier in the world. Both aircraft carriers have thousands of sailors on board and have air squadrons made up of dozens of combat aircraft. In total, nearly 10,000 soldiers are deployed. Donald Trump’s military deployments in the United States have cost nearly $500 million.
Iran’s ballistic arsenal is estimated at around 3,000 missiles, including short-range ballistic missiles (300 to 1,000 km) and medium-range ballistic missiles (1,000 to 3,000 km). According to figures from Military Balance 2025, Iran has the largest armed force in the region in terms of numbers, with around 610,000 active personnel.
