“” The end of the diet is close »» In Iran, according to the son of the former Chah Reza Pahlavi. While the Israeli government has planned to eliminate The Iranian Supreme Guide During his 12-day war with the mullahs regime, what would happen if he were to collapse ? Would it lead to ” chaos “as Emmanuel Macron features, who cited the examples of Iraq and Afghanistan during the G7? In chaos, perhaps not, but to a complex, even dangerous recomposition, certainly. Because behind the facade of an authoritarian regime worn down to the rope, no alternative seems to be unanimous.
First on the starting line, the people of the people, which represent the historic and structured opposition of the regime, with an active clandestine network inside the country. Led by Maryam Radjavi, they promise a democratic and secular state, where moderate Islam would tolerate other religions. But behind this speech “” Western-compatible »» Hide a more troubled reality. “They are Islamo-Marxist, totalitarian, their system is as rigid as a sect”estimates the geopolitologist Alexandre Del Valle. Long allies of the former Khomeini guide, their oppositional turn does not make them frequentable according to him: “It is not much better than the current regime. »» If they have many activists, they are not unanimous among the population.
A myriad of contenders
Another media figure: Reza Pahlavi, son of the former chah, in exile since the 1979 revolution. Charismatic and well introduced in the diaspora, especially in the United States and Europe, he dreams of being in “Father of the Nation” For a peaceful transition. But in the field, its influence is almost zero. “The monarchists have been charred for a long time, even if there is a share of nostalgia in the population”recognizes the essayist.
Faced with these two poles, a mosaic of secondary actors completes the painting: groups in exile like the Novine Iran party, leftist or anarchist movements, and above all, ethnic minorities – Kurds, Sunni Arabs, but also Azeries, which represent almost a third of the population. “ILS Ne could not take power, tempers the specialist. But they could participate in its destruction »».
To these hypotheses is added that, more likely, according to Alexandre Del Valle, of the internal transition. Not by the people, whom he still deems too economically dependent on the regime to revolt, but by reformist religious or more figures “” moderate »» power. “A form of Emirates fashionable Islam, with secularism under control”, he explains. A gentle mutation, without brutal reversal, where clothes would change more than men.
The armed wing of the guide
But to look at it, the most advanced scenario is already underway. The true masters of the country no longer carry the turban. It is the Pasdaran, the Guardians of the Revolution, who hold the reins of the economy, the army and, more and more, from political power. “The guide has already transferred some of his prerogatives to them”underlines Alexandre Del Valle. More nationalist than ideologues, less clerical but just as Islamist, they embody a hard continuity of the regime, rid of its theocratic varnish. A military regime, like the Lebanese Hezbollah, whose popular anchoring, although forced, is also real according to the geopolitologist.
There remains an option that many hope but that Alexandre del Valle dismisses for the moment: that of a popular uprising. “It’s a Western fantasy”he says. Women without veil, students, connected youth of big cities fascinate Western media, but remain in the minority according to him. The fall of mullahs, if it were to arrive, would probably not mark the end of Islamism in Iran and even less the advent of a democracy.
