Iran-United States: real negotiations have begun

The latest incidents observed in the Strait of Hormuz immediately revived fears of a new military escalation. Intercepted ships, strong declarations, naval demonstrations and strikes: everything could lead us to believe that the Gulf remains on the verge of conflagration. However, to limit ourselves to these episodes would be to miss the essential point of what is happening. These demonstrations of force constitute above all classic instruments of negotiation in the current balance of power. Each camp seeks to arrive at the discussion table from a position of strength, without crossing the threshold of a confrontation from which no one would truly emerge a winner. Neither the protagonists nor the rest of the world.

The skirmishes are not the negotiation but they are almost part of the setting. They allow everyone to reassure their public opinion by showing that we are not ready to give up easily, to preserve our strategic credibility and to recall our red lines before accepting the essential compromises. It is precisely because discussions are moving forward that demonstrations of firmness are increasing.

Redrawing the Middle East

Between now and the end of August, diplomatic exchanges should continue at a particularly sustained pace, with several weekly meetings bringing together Iranian, American, Qatari and Pakistani representatives. Qatar continues to play a central role as mediator and facilitator, by organizing or supporting these discussions between Doha and Switzerland.

The objective goes far beyond a simple diplomatic ceasefire. This time we must go further. The negotiations concern a set of commitments likely to lastingly transform the regional balance. Among the hypotheses discussed today is a gradual abandonment by Iran of its military nuclear program, in return for international guarantees and a reduction in sanctions. Tehran could also accept the return of reinforced controls from the International Atomic Energy Agency on its territory in order to provide lasting guarantees to the international community.

The United States wants to avoid a new military stalemate in the Middle East

Maritime security constitutes another pillar of the discussions. Free movement in the Strait of Hormuz appears to be a common interest. A complete reopening of this strategic route, possibly without additional rights of passage, would meet both the expectations of the United States and those of the Gulf monarchies, who have no interest in seeing this global energy artery become a permanent instrument of confrontation.

A strategic necessity

Contrary to appearances, the interests of the different actors today converge more than they oppose each other. The United States wants to avoid a new military stalemate in the Middle East. Iran needs economic breathing space after years of sanctions. The Gulf countries want to secure their investments, preserve their growth and pursue their economic diversification strategies. As for the international community, it fears more than anything a new global energy crisis which would fuel inflation and slow growth even further.

The failure of the negotiations would have a considerable cost for everyone. A lasting challenge to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz would immediately cause a rise in energy prices and a new period of global economic instability. Conversely, an agreement would open an unprecedented sequence of regional stabilization from which both the Gulf powers and the world economy would benefit.

The tensions observed in recent days must therefore be interpreted with caution. They are more a negotiation strategy than a real desire to break. The real news is happening far from the cameras at the moment, in meeting rooms where diplomats, mediators and experts are trying to finally build an acceptable compromise. Success is not yet guaranteed because the differences remain deep. But it is already established that a negotiated solution today costs infinitely less than a new war. For Washington, for Tehran, for the Gulf countries and for the entire international community, peace has no longer become an ideal, but truly a strategic and economic interest.

*Sébastien Boussois is a doctor in political science, media consultant, researcher in international relations associated with the CNAM Paris (Defense Security Team) and the Geostrategic Observatory of Geneva (Switzerland) and director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE).