For four days, the Cashmere region was the scene of bombing. Indo-Pakistani tensions had not experienced such intensity for decades. This Saturday, May 10 at 5 p.m. local time, a ceasefire silenced the explosions. If some fire exchanges have still resonated in the evening, calm returned this Sunday along the border between the two nations.
“It is not a question of war strictly speaking, these are mainly missile clashes and interposed drones, the opportunity for the two countries of a demonstration of military force”estimates Jean-Joseph Boillot, specialist in India and researcher at the IRIS Institute (Institute of International and Strategic Relations). These recent clashes have caused more than 60 people in the cashmere region, mainly civilians, and led to the movement of thousands of people. New Delhi and Islamabad reject each other’s responsibility, linked to an attack in the city of Pahalgam on April 22.
Kashmir: Identity stake to economic manna
At the heart of frictions between India and Pakistan: the mountainous cashmere region. “Hostilities began in 1947 with the score, when India wanted to appropriate the region. From then on, three great wars were followed by ”summarizes the expert in Indian policy. The plebiscite proposed by the UN in 1948, supposed to settle the conflict by a local referendum, never made it possible to settle the territorial dispute between the two countries, specifies Jean-Joseph Boillot. Subsequently, two other wars occurred: in 1965, then in 1971 during the independence of East Pakistan (current Bangladesh). Today, cashmere remains disputed, Islamabad demanding a referendum that New Delhi refuses, considering the region as an integral part of its territory.
It is a fact: Pakistan houses, leads and finances militant groups
Jean-Joseph Boillot, specialist in India and researcher at the Iris Institute
“Originally, the fight for cashmere was above all a matter of ego and symbols, without economic stakeanalyzes the researcher at the iris. It was a question of identity, language, religion and culture. Pakistan defended the traditions of Central Asia, while India saw in this territory a means of reaffirming its history in the face of Muslim conquests. »»
But today, cashmere is also of major economic importance, especially due to the Indus river network. The 1960 Treaty, which provides for a fair sharing of waters between the two countries, is now challenged by India, which has threatened to cut the supply of Pakistan after the Pahalgam attacks. “In the ego war as in that of water, neither have legitimacy to occupy the cashmere”, concludes Jean-Joseph Boillot.
Terrorist threat
To the rivalry around water are added the suspicions of terrorism that India feeds towards Pakistan. After the Pahalgam attack causing the death of 26 civilians, New Delhi quickly accused Islamabad of complicity. However, Pakistan has denied any involvement. “No evidence has made a link between Pakistan and the attacks of April 22. But it is a fact: Pakistan houses, leads and finances militant groups ”notes the specialist in Indian policy. These factions bring together both jihadists and cashmiris activists advocating independence or annexation in Pakistan. Indeed, cashmere now houses one of the largest resistance networks and is one of the most militarized regions in South Asia.
“Islamabad does not hide it, he wants to recover the cashmere and that, by all means”, concludes Jean-Joseph Bouillot. A position that led Indian Prime Minister Narendra Moda of accusing Islamabad of having “Choose to attack rather than fight terrorism” in the region.
The fighting fever is already falling
The international community did not want a new war between New Delhi and Islamabad. Washington thus urged the two countries to establish a ceasefire on Saturday May 10. However, Narendra Moda rejects any foreign interference in this historic conflict, claiming that India made his decisions on this file alone. Since the resumption of hostilities, the great powers have been in tune: we must avoid any climbing of the conflict. “No one wants this war, Washington, Beijing, Nor Europe”underlines the specialist, a context encouraging the maintenance of the ceasefire.
Trade links between India and the United States encourage Modi to prudence
Although Indian nationalists demand the resumption of hostilities, the major commercial relationship between India and the United States encourages Modi to prudence. A new trade agreement with Washington is also under discussion. A negotiation around cashmere therefore remains possible: “Neither India nor Pakistan has an interest in engaging an open war, but they have everything to gain a compromise”concludes Jean-Joseph Boillot. Despite the lull, the speech of Narendra Modi of May 12 remains offensive, recalling the determination of New Delhi to recover the cashmere, still marked by the recent violence.
