In Prague, the polling stations closed today at 2 p.m. in the same ceremonial calm as they had opened the day before, a particularity of Czech elections which are held over two days. But behind this placidity, there is a political shift taking place with the announced return of Andrej Babis. The former Prime Minister, a populist billionaire with a calm voice and a piercing gaze, could well take over the reins of the country. Head of government from 2017 to 2021, the man, aged 71, born in Slovakia, feared, is advancing on conquered ground. Carried by an offensive campaign, his ANO movement (“Yes” in Czech), which received up to 40% of the votes, largely won over the ruling coalition.
ANO dominates almost the entire country with the exception of the capital and the foreign vote. What a return! Four years ago, Babis was ousted thanks to an improbable alliance of five parties, ranging from conservatives to centrist liberals, brought together under the banner SPOLU (“Together”).
This opportunistic coalition had united to block the path of the businessman. Yesterday, Spolu collapsed with some 16% of the vote. The war in Ukraine, soaring energy prices, stubborn inflation and unpopular reforms have worn down the government of Petr Fiala, a political science professor with an austere style.
“A strong Czechia”
A former agribusiness magnate who became one of the richest men in the country, Babis cultivates his uniqueness. Half-tribune, half-boss, he uses an anti-elite speech, promises to “return Czechia to the Czechs” and does not hesitate to attack Brussels. With his red cap “A strong Czechia”inspired by MAGA, Babis claims to be “Trumpist”.
His opponents see him as a threat to the rule of law, a businessman with authoritarian methods and multiple conflicts of interest. His fans portray him as a protector of “forgotten” completely insensitive to the codes of the Prague microcosm.
But Babis will have to compose. The proportional voting system makes an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies almost impossible. To govern, he will need a coalition or parliamentary tolerance. Its natural allies are on the side of the SPD (“Freedom and Direct Democracy”, nothing to do with the German Social Democrats) of Tomio Okamura, a party also surfing on Trumpism and which achieved up to 11% of the votes yesterday.
Migration, climate, Ukraine: on all these fronts, Prague will be a difficult partner
Born to a Japanese father and a Czech mother, Okamura, who shares with Trump the fact that he hosted a reality TV show on entrepreneurship, is also a divisive media figure. His party advocates referendums on leaving the European Union, opposes immigration and the reception of refugees, and develops a very anti-Islam discourse. An alliance between ANO and the SPD would allow Babis to get closer to a majority, at the cost of an explosive coalition which would worry Brussels.
For the European Union, Babis’ victory means the emergence of a third government, after Slovakia and Hungary, ready to challenge the common line. Migration, climate, Ukraine: on all these fronts, Prague will be a difficult partner. The other scenario, experienced between 2017 and 2021, would be that of a minority government, with Babis governing alone while negotiating support on a case-by-case basis. Autumn in Prague promises to be eventful.
