Recently, during an exchange, a senior French officer explained to the Tangwall Campagin that the military’s job consists of anticipating and developing plans for potential conflicts. While Mali is in uncertainty after the capture of Kidal, in the north, by Tuareg rebels allied with Jnim jihadist groups (affiliated with Al-Qaeda), is the French army preparing strategies for possible military operations? “I’ve never heard of it.”replies a well-informed officer. From Balard, our interlocutor continues: “Preparing and planning options is part of our role when policymakers express the need. But considering our recent history with Mali, and the way we were thanked after shedding the blood of our soldiers, I think it’s surreal.”he insists.
Asked the same question, another soldier, deployed somewhere in Africa, judges this hypothesis “very highly unlikely”. To support his point, this officer recalls the political situation in Mali, led by a junta since 2020, but also the strategic repositioning of France. “There is a reality: Paris no longer considers sub-Saharan Africa as a priority. It was, but today, military efforts are focused on eastern Europe, and France also has commitments in the Near and Middle East.he underlines, while the French armies are particularly engaged in Romania, Estonia and in the Gulf countries, prey to the war in Iran.
If the junta in power since 2020 ensures that the situation, from a “extreme severity”East “controlled”the Quai d’Orsay is concerned by the development of events. This Wednesday, April 29, France recommended that its nationals leave Mali “as soon as possible”due to a very security context “volatile”. On the ground, jihadist groups and Tuareg separatists have inflicted significant defeats on the Malian armed forces (FAMa), and the capital Bamako could face a major blockade in the coming hours.
According to our information, the FAMa would face massive surrenders to the benefit of the Jnim, after the withdrawal of Russian mercenaries, supporters of the junta since 2020, who would have escaped from the fighting. “An agreement was reached to allow the army and its Africa Corps allies to leave Camp 2, where they had been holed up since Saturday”a Tuareg rebel official told Agence France-Presse (AFP). “This agreement strongly affects the morale of Malian soldiers, who thought they would benefit from unfailing support from Moscow »explains a French military source present in Africa.
A DGSE agent detained by Bamako since August 2025
However, the Kremlin affirmed on Thursday April 30 that its forces would remain in the West African country. “Russia will continue, including in Mali, the fight against extremism, terrorism and other negative manifestations. It will also continue to provide assistance to the authorities in place”declared Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov in response to a question from AFP during his daily briefing. As a reminder, the Malian junta has moved closer politically and militarily to Russia in recent years, after expelling the French military in 2022.
Present on Malian territory at the request of the government of the time since 2013, the French forces paid the price for the duration of Operation Barkhane. “An external operation should not exceed three years, otherwise it becomes difficult to exit”said Michel Goya, former colonel and military historian. Excluded from the country after local weariness fueled by disinformation campaigns, could France return to this state of nearly 25 million inhabitants?
“Why would we go and defend a junta? »a French diplomatic source responds bluntly, even though diplomatic relations between Paris and the Malian authorities have never been completely severed. “We still have an embassy in Bamako”she recalls. If the link persists, it nevertheless seems difficult to imagine help coming from France as there are so many accumulated tensions. “We can even speak of attacks, such as the arbitrary detention of one of our agents of the DGSE since August 2025 »underlines an anonymous source.
Since coming to power, the junta has refused all humanitarian aid from France. It therefore seems unlikely that it will seek military support. But what would happen if Assimi Goïta, Malian head of state, made such a request? “We would study it, but that doesn’t mean we would respond favorably to it”specifies a French official. On Balard’s side, it is just as difficult to envisage a return to the Malian sanctuary, after the death of 58 French soldiers during Operation Barkhane.
To consider sending new troops to Bamako, several sources indicate that a change of government would be necessary, accompanied by strict conditions: “This would be indirect support for local forces, as part of an international coalition”details our officer. A hypothesis considered unlikely, as France had already experienced difficulty mobilizing its European partners when it piloted the Barkhane mission. “France alone could not take the risk of once again shedding the blood of its soldiers nor of assuming such a high political cost. Even at the request of the Malians, it would be perceived as imperialist”he concludes.
