A hospital room, somewhere in the suburbs of Koursk. Men sit on their beds. Some still carry their trellis. They have the black and yellow complexion of the underground minors. But their tired smile also betrays the pride of having achieved something out of the ordinary. They come back from hell, indeed. A forty meter. It was the diameter of the gas pipeline they borrowed on Saturday March 8 in the morning, traveling, bent back, in the gas vapors, almost 12 kilometers to end up leading to the back of the Ukrainians and take their enemy by surprise. The operation was baptized “Potok”, which means the “flow” in Russian. This name would almost betray a form of humor. Because from flow, there was not precisely, apart from that of the soldiers who advanced.
The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline indeed transported gas from Russia to the European Union. On January 1, President Zelensky decided not to renew the contract. So the pipeline was empty. Its use to infiltrate Ukrainian positions would almost sound like the revenge of North Stream, another famous Russian pipeline including plasticization under the sea at the start of the war deprived the German cheap Germans. The Ukrainians claimed to have spotted the advance of the Russians in the pipeline and have killed a good number. It may be the truth, but it was not enough. Those who came out alive have created panic, by destabilizing the heart of the Soudja system, the HQ of the Ukrainians in Koursk. At the same time, a series of concentric attacks around the salient will have allowed after three days of fighting to reduce the Ukrainian presence in Russia at barely 200 km², with a large part of the troops now surrounded.
This rout, attenuated by timid progress of Ukrainians on the fronts of Donbass, more than advanced consolidations, falls at a very bad time. In Djeddah indeed, under the good auspices of the Americans who kindly but firmly twisted their arm to force them to sit at the negotiating table, the Ukrainians accepted a thirty-day ceasefire on the whole front.
Putin in fighting outfit
At that moment, when the ink has just dried on the document and all eyes turn to Moscow to wait for the Russian answer, Vladimir Putin appears in fighting outfit. Even at the time of Chechnya, when he promised to track down the terrorists “Up to the puppies”no one had seen him in camouflage from head to toe. He chose the Koursk front and the company of Valeri Guerassimov, his chief of staff, to show himself. Putin on the forehead, this is a first. Next to it, Zelensky is a regular, not always happy elsewhere, because both in Bakhmout and Avdiivka, his presence on the front line has often resulted in the loss of the city shortly after.
The ceasefire signed in Djeddah, everyone sought to scrutinize in the provisions of the Russians. “The Peace Ball is in their camp”had warned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The Americans had not imposed any time limit on the Russians to answer. It was not like with Hamas. “If on Saturday at 12 noon all the hostages have not been released, the fire of hell will fall on you!” »» had threatened Trump. This time, the American president spoke of a telephone interview with Putin. He should have taken place on Wednesday. The Kremlin replied Thursday, just to show that it is he who has the hand on the agenda and especially that nothing presses. And the answer is “Niet!” »». Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy advisor who affirms it, explaining that Russia sees it “Nothing other than a respite for the Ukrainian army to reconstitute and start the fight again”.
Americans went far to show their good will
We could have suspected. Putin, in combat clothes, that meant: “It is I who decides. »» Just before, Sergei Lavrov, his faithful Minister of Foreign Affairs, had set the tone, refusing to see European troops ensuring the security of Ukraine. Putin also has the bad verb. “Russia intends to treat Ukrainian soldiers captured in Koursk as terrorists”he said before clarifying that, for foreign mercenaries, the Geneva conventions will not apply. Not really the language of someone ready to affix their signature on the text of a cease-fire. It must be said that timing is not the right one to stop the war. The end of the Ukrainian presence in Russia is approaching. This represented a card for Zelensky. Koursk’s operation, a rare symbol of a audacious war of movement at the heart of an attrition conflict where the lines move little, will have only been a stroke of com. The Russians returned it to their advantage, highlighting the tactics used of their soldiers in the pipeline to embody their victory.
A new safety pact
We understand that Moscow, to whom the fate of the weapons smiles at the moment, is not in a hurry to negotiate. Even if Russia had reasons to reject the American offer, the ceasefire that can allow Ukraine to blow and rearm, it is unlikely that Putin Braque Trump while the negotiation cycle begins. In an Israeli scenario, Russia could accept the principle, then gradually empty it of its substance so that hostilities resume. An agreement on his part could also mean that the Americans have consented under certain unwritten Russian conditions, such as the lifting of sanctions. It must be recognized that by temporarily removing help from Ukraine and especially the sharing of intelligence, the Americans went far to show their good will. They know that Russia is not hostile to the ceasefire, but provided that it is part of a global settlement of the conflict in the form of a new security pact with the United States and NATO. All this will not happen in a day …
Moscow is therefore looking to save time. Complete the operation in Koursk, strengthen its grip in the Donbass before agreeing to freeze the front temporarily. Last weak signal of the “good” provisions of the Russians, the fact that Dimitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, spoke on April 20, Orthodox Easter Day, for a possible entry into force of the ceasefire. The word at the end returns to the Russian president who Thursday ends up declaring: “Russia supports the truce in Ukraine, with a few reserves. I thank the President of the United States for the attention paid to this conflict. A fighting of fighting must lead to lasting peace ”. Many things remain to be defined so, but whether we like it or not, peace advances and it is to Trump that we owe it.
