On April 25, Steve Witkoff has an appointment with Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump’s emissary for Ukraine takes advantage of a hole in his agenda to take his wife, Lauren Rappoport, on the famous Arbat street, in the historic heart of Moscow. He is accompanied in his walk by Kirill Dmitriev, the chief negotiator of Putin for Ukraine. The intermission does not last long. The Kremlin is only a few strides. Vladimir Putin awaits him there. The Russian president is smiling. “How Are You, Mister President?” »» Ask Witkoff to Putin in English, before taking place around a much more “human” table than that reserved for Emmanuel Macron at the start of the war. It is their fourth meeting since February, hence the friendly tone. At the same time, another capital, kyiv, is under the fire of the Russian missiles. Peace is not for tomorrow, even if American and Russians will qualify their meeting as “Positive”…
Ukraine is actually only one of the multiple irons that Witkoff has in fire. Leaving Moscow, the emissary of Trump immediately takes the direction of Mascate, the capital of the Sultanate of Oman, where he must meet the Iranian representatives. Barely arrived on the spot, Steve Witkoff learns that an explosion on a platform of the Shahid Rajai port, in the province of Hormozgan, in the south of Iran, left 85 dead. The place is not trivial. It is thereby, in fact, that a fifth of world oil production pass and 85 % of goods in Iran. The Iranian media immediately accuse Israel. Witkoff does not comment.
But, in his heart, he knows very well that actions decided without consultation by the Hebrew State can at any time jeopardize his delicate mission. Iranian authorities minimize, evoking an accident. Since then, another explosion has occurred, on a military site this time, in the Ispahan region … Two explosions in the background, it is a lot in view of the context. Is this a prelude to a prelude to a large-scale operation? Everyone knows that the Americans have disposed at least eight B-2 stealth bombers on their basis of Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean.
On the Iranian nuclear file, Benyamin Netanyahu has threatened several times to go alone if Iran did not give up everything to acquire the atomic bomb. However, a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA) considers that Tehran would have increased its 60 %enriched uranium reserves. This figure means that the Iranian regime is close to the 90 % necessary for the manufacture of the nuclear bomb. Between December 2024 and February 2025, Iran tripled its production and would have 274.8 kilos of enriched uranium. At the same time, Tehran announced the commissioning of new advanced centrifuges, the machines which are used precisely to enrich uranium. Iran ensures, however, that enriched uranium is only intended for civil use. But, since 2018, the country has returned to the commitments it had made by the 2015 agreement with the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China and Russia. Attempts to rekindle the agreement, now an empty shell, have since failed. The head of Iranian diplomacy, Abbas Araghthchi, ruled out “Direct negotiation” with the United States in the current context of “Maximum pressure”. “Iran will not negotiate with a pistol on the temple”warned Ali Vaez, director of the Iran of Crisis Group project.
Trump evokes direct negotiations with Iran
On October 26, obeying the Biden administration’s injunctions, the Israeli Prime Minister was careful not to target Iranian oil and nuclear installations. The Israeli Air Force had limited its strikes to the anti -aircraft defense, undoubtedly with the idea of returning later to finish the work. Since then, the confrontation between Iran and Israel has decreased in intensity. But the sound of boots still resonates in the region. One, then two American aircraft carriers currently meet in the eastern Mediterranean, shuttle between the Red Sea and the shores of Lebanon.
The Houthis, a serious threat to Washington
On Iran, Trump decided to reconnect first with the policy of “Maximum pressure” already experienced during his first mandate. Hence the idea of hitting these formidable allies of Iran that are the Houthis in Yemen. This campaign, ordered by Trump, was a mixed success. It only partially reduced the means of action of the Houthi. On the other hand, the Americans have lost a dozen Reaper drones. On December 1, the shooting of an aircraft carrier frigate Harry S. Truman mistakenly shot an F-18 hunter. Last Tuesday, another device being towed on the deck of the same Harry S. Truman fell into the sea during a maneuver of avoidance of a Houthi missile shot.
The victories of Israel isolated Iran. For many, the blow of grace approaches
The Red Sea decidedly has very bad units for the US Navy as for merchant ships. The threat of the Houthis persists. We then say that naturally, sooner or later, strikes on Iran should intervene. At every moment, we are on the verge of war, with a victorious Netanyahu (not quite) of Hamas, Hezbollah and indirect actor of the fall of Bashar el-Assad in Syria, which now suits him because Iran can no longer supply his ally faithful to Lebanon. The Shiite croissant is at half mast. There remains the biggest piece, Iran itself. The country has ballistic weapons in number. He demonstrated it during strikes on Tel Aviv last year. The victories of Israel, however, isolated him. For many, the blow of grace is approaching.
And this is where Trump intervenes, with his fiery rhetoric. For a moment, it is believed that he will be ahead of the Israelis and hit Iranian nuclear infrastructure first. The days pass and nothing materializes. During his last visit to Washington, Benyamin Netanyahu is still convinced. Then, in front of the cameras, to the surprise of the Israeli Prime Minister, Donald Trump talks about direct negotiations that open with Iran. It must be said that Steve Witkoff, with his air of eternal satisfied, advances in his mission. We learn that, if there is an agreement, Iran would be authorized to develop its civil nuclear program. The United States could ensure that the program has no military end. In exchange, they would raise the embargo which has penalized the Iranian economy for a long time.
Trump actually retracts the JCPOA, the agreement negotiated and signed in Vienna in 2015 under the aegis of Barack Obama and that he himself made deciduous in 2018. We remember in March, Trump had written to Ali Khamenei, the Head of the Islamic Republic, who replied. Apart from these epistolary exchanges, two negotiation sessions have already taken place in Oman and Rome, qualified each time by the two camps of “Positive”. From Ukraine to the tariff war via Gaza, the Iranian file seemed to be the most delicate, as the desire to strike Israelis was strong. She is still. But if things go to the end, Iran may risk, and against all odds, to appear for Trump of first diplomatic success …
