The Arab Spring, revolutions, regime reversals and the return of dictatorships do not allow you to obviously anticipate in a certain way, as many dream, that Syrian democracy is really underway. Many countries have interfered in the affairs of Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, and Syria. There has been something to be rather pessimistic for over ten years for the region. Not a country that has thrown its dictator is today a solid, stable, prosperous and permanently anchored country in the democratic values that we hope so much from the outside.
Lately, the new strong Syrian man, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani With his name as a jihadist fighter and who became Ahmad al-Charaa, hailed by Westerners as the new Syrian Messiah, has just suspended the Constitution, the Parliament and proclaim herself “President for the transition phase”. A transition that can last a year, two years, or twenty.
There is somewhere a form of orientalism and exoticism to go at the moment to the capital of the Omeyyads, since the Assad dynasty collapsed. We walk in Damascus, we bear witness to the joy of its inhabitants relieved, but difficult tomorrows may quickly occur: we must rebuild everything, gain real independence, and build a democracy. All for the moment with a leader, “former” fierce jihadist who became lamb in less than three months. Westerners are divided between angelism and mistrust. The hope is there but the task is immense without and even with their assistance.
Since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime? The whole world rushes to the Damascus bedside
Since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime at the end of last year, the whole world has rushed to Damascus, whether political leaders or simple curious people passionate about the country but also before the major issues that Syria represents. There are clearly losers from the departure of Bashar al-Assad and which are discreet on the subject: Iran and the United Arab Emirates in mind, and perhaps well to a certain extent Israel. The first had made Damascus his satellite, the second had worked for the reintegration of the late the alaouite torturer regime within the Arab League and part of the international community. Bad pick!
As for the third, the Hebrew state had not been the subject of any major attack on the Golan annexed to Syria, and no claim to recover this territory had emerged from Assad in almost 60 years. This could change with the new diet and prove to be a major source of conflicts.
Fierce appetite
Neighbors’ appetites are fierce: political support or economic interests of course. But, with the visit of the Emir of Qatar Tamim Al Thani on January 30, one can already wonder to what extent it would be interesting to have the Qatari mediator in the equation “in case” everything changes. Indeed, it is the first time that a head of state has been going to Post-Assad Syria.
It is a symbol, even though the “sponsor” of the HTC group, which Ahmad al-Charaa directed before becoming recently president of transition, is Turkey and that Erdogan has still not surrendered in the Syrian capital. And that the Americans are not about to go there, since Al-Charaa is still on the black list of “actively” terrorists sought. Doha can already play the role of intermediary necessary to forge new diplomatic and strategic links with tomorrow Syria. Finally at least Syria today.
A strategic country
There are far too many interests for this strategic country with multiple border contacts, wedged between Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Jordan. Under Russian influence since the civil war, the country has just broken not only with Moscow but also with Tehran. The battle is therefore already engaged not only for the future political model and social coexistence, but for those who will have a place of choice in the West with the future regime. It is a safe bet that it is a long way of the cross, as the chancelleries in Europe are currently shy in order to reconnect with the country.
There is no doubt that Doha, who has acquired the reputation of a privileged interlocutor of the infrequent, will play a major card in this new regional chessboard, in order to avoid above all that Syria will rock in a new civil war.
* Doctor of Political Science, Arab and Geopolitical World Researcher, teacher in international relations at IHECS (Brussels), associated with CNAM Paris (Defense Security Team), at the Institute of Applied Geopolitics Studies (IEGA Paris), the Nordic Center for Conflict Transformation (NCCT Stockholm) and at the Geostrategic Observatory in Geneva (Switzerland).
