Middle East

Leaders killed, arsenal opened, tunnels destroyed… What remains of Hamas, three years after October 7?

More than 1,200 dead and more than 250 Israelis kidnapped, becoming hostages in the hands of the attackers. Just three years ago, Israel fell into horror after the Hamas carried out one of the worst terrorist attacks in its historyin the south of the country, a few kilometers from the Gaza Strip. According to estimates by Israeli security services, at least 3,000 armed men actively participated in the massacres and kidnappings that day, particularly around Kibbutz Re’im. The Israeli response was not long in coming.

In the days that followed, Benjamin Netanyahu imposed a complete siege of the Gaza Strip before launching a massive campaign of airstrikes, followed by a major ground invasion. An offensive which, three years later, remains strongly criticized by part of the international communityparticularly because of its considerable human cost for the civilian population. More than 74,000 people have been killed, according to the latest report from the Gaza Ministry of Health, placed under the authority of Hamas and whose figures are considered generally reliable by the United Nations. On the military front, the IDF can nevertheless pride itself on having dealt extremely heavy blows to the Islamist organization. First objective: strike the command.

In total, around ten top-ranking leaders have been eliminated since October 7, 2023. Among them is Yahya Sinouarleader of the movement Gazathen number one in the entire organization. His disappearance probably constitutes one of the most significant losses inflicted on the terrorist group, as his role was central. A historical figure in the organization in the Palestinian enclave, he participated in the creation of its security apparatus and is considered one of the main brains of October 7. The American president at the time, Joe Bidenhad even mentioned, at the time of his elimination, “ a good day for Israel, for the United States and for the world “. He compared the event to the death ofOsama bin Laden in 2011, before urging Jerusalem to seize this opportunity to move towards a ceasefire and prepare “ post-war » without Hamas.

But Yahya Sinouar is far from being the only thinking head to have disappeared since the start of the Israeli response. Ismaïl Haniyeh, head of the political bureau, was also killed. Just like Mohammed Deif, historic military leader of the al-Qassam Brigades (armed branch of Hamas) and considered by Israel as one of the main architects of October 7. Added to this list is Mohammed Sinwaryounger brother of Yahya. After the disappearance of Deif and his brother, he became one of the main military leaders in the Gaza Strip. His death was finally confirmed in August 2025. This succession of eliminations deeply shook the chain of command. “ One might believe that new leaders appear as soon as one of them is killed and that these eliminations serve no purpose. However, this creates internal tensions and destabilizes the organization », Analyzes a former intelligence officer for the Tangwall Campagin.

Thousands of fighters killed… and thousands recruited

But the hunt was not limited to the leaders. Of the approximately 74,000 people killed in the Gaza Strip, Israeli authorities estimate they have eliminated around 20,000 fighters. A figure particularly difficult to verify independently, the Ministry of Health of Gaza not distinguishing civilians from combatants in its overall assessment and the Islamist organization not communicating precisely on its military losses. Before the start of the conflict, in October 2023, American estimates placed Hamas’ numbers at around 20,000 to 25,000 fighters. The scale of the losses claimed by Israel could therefore suggest that the armed wing was practically wiped out. The reality is more complex: for three years, the movement has constantly sought to replenish its ranks.

To compensate for its losses, the organization is continually recruiting. According to American intelligence assessments reported after the first fifteen months of war, it had managed to enlist between 10,000 and 15,000 new members. Recruits are often young, less experienced and less well trained than the fighters present before October 7, but who allow the movement to at least partially renew its numbers. Added to this are several thousand men belonging to other armed factions in the Gaza Strip, starting with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and its al-Quds Brigades.

Eliminating those responsible for the massacre and their fighters is not, however, the only objective that Benjamin Netanyahu has set itself since October 7: it has also made the disarmament of the terrorist group one of its priorities. “ The question is not whether Hamas will be disarmed, but how. This can be done peacefully or by force. » In this area, however, it is better to handle the figures with caution. There is no independent inventory allowing us to state that “ Israel destroyed X% of Hamas weapons “. Before the war, the Islamist group had an arsenal of several thousand rockets, some capable of reaching central Israel.

But three years of bombings, ground combat and destruction of infrastructure have deeply eroded this firepower. By 2025, combatant operations reflected a shift in strategy: as conventional capabilities eroded, massive rocket salvos and prolonged clashes gave way more to ambushes, improvised explosives, and hit-and-run attacks by small units. The Hamas of 2026 therefore no longer has the conventional firepower it had on the morning of October 7, 2023. But weakened does not mean disarmed: the negotiations carried out for months around the demilitarization of Gaza testify to the persistence of stocks of weapons, explosives and military infrastructure.

Finally, there remains what has for years constituted one of the movement’s main military assets: its huge underground network. To move fighters, weapons, ammunition and equipment away from drones and Israeli aircraft, the men of the Islamist group continue to rely on the tunnels dug under the Gaza Strip. Before the war, some estimates suggested around 500 kilometers of galleries. These infrastructures occupy a preponderant place in the military system. Some galleries go several dozen meters underground and were designed to allow fighters to remain hidden for long periods. The most elaborate installations have electricity, ventilation systems and communication lines and serve as traffic routes, weapons caches, command posts and shelters.

Since October 2023, their destruction has become a war within a war. Bombings, explosives, drilling, engineering operations: the IDF has mobilized considerable resources to map and then neutralize what the Israeli army calls the “ Gaza metro “. Israeli officials claim to have destroyed or rendered unusable hundreds of kilometers of galleries. However, three years of war were not enough to make this underground world disappear. According to data provided by security officials and the Israeli Defense Ministry, between 60% and 75% of Hamas’ overall underground infrastructure remains intact and functioning.