The German political landscape is preparing for an electoral earthquake. This Sunday, in Saxony-Anhalt, the regional elections could see the AfD win and thus install a minister-president – in the person of Ulrich Siegmund. In this eastern German state, Alice Weidel’s party is now almost twice as powerful as the CDU. In the polls, the AfD comes well ahead. The CDU is even 20 points behind, with 42% of voting intentions in favor of the AfD compared to 22% for the conservative Christian Democrats of Friedrich Merz.
Many MPs in Saxony-Anhalt partly attribute this announced debacle to the chancellor. “Merz only knows how to make announcements, judge Beatrix von Storch, vice-president of the AfD parliamentary group. He has not kept any of his election promises. Our probable success in Saxony-Anhalt would be synonymous with a historic debacle for him. » If the AfD actually managed to take the helm of the regional government, it would be a first in the history of the Federal Republic.
Historic setback for the CDU?
During this electoral campaign, Merz remained very in the background, content to raise the specter of serious economic consequences in the event of an AfD victory. “For me, it is very difficult to imagine international investors agreeing to participate in an inauguration ceremony alongside an AfD minister-president, with a view to establishing new factories and creating new companies in Saxony-Anhalt”he declared at the beginning of the week to the public channel ARD. Within the CDU, we are already thinking about the future. Different scenarios are considered. The most feared: that the AfD obtains the means to govern alone. For the CDU, the setback would be historic.
But another scenario could prove just as painful. In two other Länder of the former GDR, in Saxony and Thuringia, the CDU has certainly found pragmatic solutions, but it regularly has to count on the support of Die Linke, a radical left party. In Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU could only govern with the permanent support of this party.
The CDU is thus heading towards a terrible dilemma. The far left or the AfD?
A nightmare for some German conservatives. Vice-president of the Union parliamentary group in the Bundestag and from Saxony-Anhalt, Sepp Müller is categorical: “There is no possible cooperation with Die Linke. Anyone who includes democratic socialism in their program cannot be a partner of the CDU. »
The CDU is thus heading towards a terrible dilemma. The far left or the AfD? What would happen if one or another CDU MP in the Landtag secretly elected Ulrich Siegmund as minister-president, or even joined the AfD out of fear of Die Linke?
Merz’s authority would be destroyed, he who has been strongly contested almost everywhere in the country for several months. As party president, he has clearly positioned himself on this subject these days. “I guarantee that everything will be done to guide the September 6 election in the direction desired by the government”insisted the Chancellor. He expects his followers to follow him. What would his word still be worth if the worst were to happen? For Angela Merkel’s successor, the autumn promises to be particularly turbulent.
