On August 7, in Jeddah and Mecca, three governments – Pakistan, Saudi ArabiaTürkiye – signed a military agreement. Between the fires in Europe, the war in Ukraine, the events of Ceutalittle has been said about this “new Baghdad Pact”. This pact aims to define cooperation between the three countries in the defense industry, intelligence sharing, joint military training and the exchange of personnel. Above all, on the model ofNATO of which Turkey is a member, the agreement establishes a collective defense mechanism under which an armed attack against any of the three will be considered an attack against all three signatory countries. This pact is interesting for several reasons.
In the short term, it brings together three unequally populated countries (259 million inhabitants for Pakistan, 87 million for Turkey, 35 million for Saudi Arabia), all three Sunni Muslims who can be thought to be joining forces against Shiite Iran. This is perhaps the primary objective, that the long war between Israel, the UNITED STATES and Iran will have imposed. But beyond that, several points are worth noting. First, it brings together three countries which have different but complementary assets: the Pakistan is not only the most populous, a state in which the army and especially the intelligence services play a major role, but also the only nuclear power of the trio (and the only one in the Muslim world). Its presence in this alliance changes its nature, even if Islamabad’s nuclear capacity is more oriented towards India, a traditional enemy and also a nuclear country.
Pakistan also sees itself in some way rewarded for the role it played (with the Sultanate of Oman) with the United States and theIran. There Türkiye has a very powerful defense industry, which largely competes with European manufacturers. Above all, Ankara is a member of NATO, has experience of the complex functioning of military alliances and has a very influential diplomacy in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and in many African states with, in addition, a very diversified air fleet. Turkey is no longer just a regional power, it aspires to something else and this pact confirms its role. Finally, Saudi Arabia, for its part, has considerable financial resources that it can make available to this alliance.
New strong axis
The Mecca pact succeeds or builds on the agreement concluded in September 2025 between Riyadh and Islamabad: by adding Turkey, the three states of the pact surround the Middle East from the Gulf to Europe via the Indian subcontinent. It is therefore not only an alliance, but more broadly a sort of recomposition of the diplomatic landscape of the region. Not only is this military pact a response to Iranian threats – particularly against Saudi Arabia – but it is also a challenge to Israel.
The Mecca Pact is also the result of Donald Trump’s erratic behavior
Surrounded by Iran and by the three states which have just formed a military alliance, Israel will now have to count on not attacking one of them (Turkey comes to mind), since the other two, according to the terms of the pact, should lend it assistance. Not only does the pact pose a challenge to Iran and Israel, but it is also the result of Donald Trump’s erratic behavior: American rhetoric about ” sharing the burden », the incapacity of the United States – which had nevertheless equipped all the armies of the Gulf – to effectively defend its allies, as well as the boasting of the American president, resulted in the bankruptcy of the Abraham Accords which had until now been Washington’s objective.
Who will now want to join these agreements, since Saudi Arabia is no longer joining them? The August 7 treaty is not particularly anti-American, but it takes note of Trump’s erratic diplomacy, the American inability to win this war against Iran and to protect its allies, as well as American retreat in the region (notably its inability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz) and the impossibility of bringing Tel-Aviv into the path of negotiations. If we go back in time, we will remember that in February 1955, five countries (Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the Shah’s Iran) signed a military alliance in Baghdad intended to prevent Soviet advances in the region. Today, Saudi Arabia has taken the place in this alliance that Iran then had. It is therefore a recomposition of the Middle East from which Iran and Israel are excluded.
This pact is not only military, it can act as a new and mobilizing element in the region. Who says that tomorrow, Egypt or the Emirates will not decide, with the assets they have, to join this new Baghdad pact? Fifteen years ago, Nicolas SarkozyPresident of the Republic, had imagined the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM); the Middle East of 2026 is far removed from this organization.
