Since the late Arab Spring of 2011, a question has regularly arisen around political transition processes throughout the Mediterranean basin: why have certain states in the region sunk into chaos while others have managed to preserve their stability? Fifteen years later, the observation is difficult to dispute. Between the civil warseconomic collapses, military coups, institutional crises and political radicalizations that have hit a large part of the Arab world, one country is following a singular trajectory: the Morocco.
This is precisely what we analyze in our book Morocco, the power of stability (editions of Cherche-Midi). Not to paint an idyllic portrait of the Kingdom, but to understand why, despite its imperfections, it probably constitutes the most successful experience of transformation in the contemporary Arab world.
Spectacular development
We often forget that stability never falls from the sky. It is the result of a political strategy, a long-term vision and a capacity for adaptation. For a quarter of a century, Morocco has advanced through successive reforms rather than through brutal ruptures. Economic modernization, massive investments in infrastructure, industrial development, diplomatic opening towards Africarise of renewable energies, reform of the status of women, regionalization, diversification of international partnerships, fight against terrorism and optimal security: few Mediterranean countries have undertaken so many transformations simultaneously.
Of course, not everything is perfect. THE unemployment youth population remains high, social inequalities persist and the expectations of an increasingly educated society remain immense. But precisely, Morocco does not claim to have completed its transformation. It is still under construction. This is undoubtedly what distinguishes it from many neighbors: reform appears as a permanent process rather than an electoral promise. And the years to come will be decisive.
Conversely, many countries that experienced the Arab Spring saw their hopes shattered against reality. Libya remains fragmented. There Syria emerges bloodless from more than a decade of war. Lebanon is sinking into a chronic political and economic crisis. Tunisia, long presented as the democratic model of the region, today experiences a strong concentration of power. As for Algeriadespite considerable resources, it is still struggling to diversify its economy and renew its political model.
Gradual transformation can produce more stability than sudden upheaval without strong institutions
Morocco has chosen another path: that of evolution rather than revolution. This strategy is sometimes criticized for its prudence. Yet the events of the past fifteen years show that gradual transformation can produce more stability than sudden upheaval without strong institutions.
This singularity also explains the rapprochement initiated by many powers with Rabat. THE UNITED STATESseveral European countries, numerous African partners as well as several Gulf monarchies now consider Morocco as an essential regional player, capable of dialogue with very different geopolitical spaces. Its influence now far exceeds its demographic weight.
In a Mediterranean environment marked by uncertainty, the Kingdom has gradually become a pole of predictability. This stability today constitutes its main strategic capital. Ultimately, the real question is perhaps no longer why Morocco has been relatively successful in its transition. She is elsewhere. Why weren’t others more inspired by it?
Because if there is a lesson that recent history seems to confirm, it is that modernization can only succeed in the long term when it takes place over the long term, when it respects the balance of a society and when it relies on institutions capable of supporting change rather than undergoing it. What if the real Moroccan exception was ultimately to have understood, before many others, that stability is never the enemy of change, but often its first condition?
*Sébastien Boussois is a doctor in political science, media consultant, researcher in international relations associated with the CNAM Paris (Defense Security Team) and the Geostrategic Observatory of Geneva (Switzerland) and director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE).
