If we wanted to be convinced, the importance of Donald Trump’s visit to China could be read from the list of bosses that the American president took with him to Beijing. Elon Musk traveled aboard Air Force One. Jensen Huang joined them during a refueling in Alaska. Born in Taiwan, the new guru of Silicon Valley had to be there because of the heavy semiconductor issue. Larry Fink (BlackRock), David Solomon (Goldman Sachs), Stephen Schwarzman (Blackstone), Kelly Ortberg (Boeing), Jane Fraser (Citigroup), Cristiano Amon (Qualcomm), Sanjay Mehrotra (Micron), and Larry Culp (General Electric) are on the passenger list. In short, all that the American economy has are companies dependent on China’s rare earth refining capacities. The Chinese and American business leaders gathered for this summit weigh 10,000 billion dollars…
On the American side, distrust is in order. The delegation lands in China under total digital lockdown. Tim Cook, the man who designed the iPhone, only carries a disposable phone with no stored data or access to corporate systems. For three days, the American delegation will wander through one of the most aggressive cyber environments in the world, where even recharging a phone presents a risk. Federal guidelines also warn against plugging into unknown USB ports, where data can be extracted or malware installed, a tactic known as juice jacking…
Digital precautions aside, the welcome from the Chinese is up to par. From the airport, and to allow Trump’s convoy to reach his hotel more quickly, the authorities went so far as to empty the portion of the highway which crosses the busy Chaoyang district. Thursday May 14, from the outset, Xi Jinping announced while looking at Donald Trump: “We should be partners, not rivals. » Just before, Trump called his Chinese counterpart a “great leader”. The tone contrasts with 2017, when Trump visited the Forbidden City accompanied by the Chinese leader to, upon his return to Washington, start a trade war with China. At that time, he sounded the alarm about Beijing’s unfair trade practices. Forced transfer of technologies, theft of intellectual property, industrial subsidies, dumping and non-tariff barriers, China benefited more from the West than the other way around. Trump must be credited with having re-established a form of balance.
Since then, the two behemoths which concentrate 40% of global economic activity have kept each other in check, but their mano a mano started again last year with Trump’s return to power. The American president wanted to increase the customs duties applied to Chinese products entering the American market by 140%. Xi Jinping responded by restricting exports of rare earths and other critical components of the high-tech and military industries. Trump reversed course, reducing his tariffs to 30%.
Noting that China had a considerable lead in rare earths, Trump decided to attack its Achilles heel which is energy. The capture of Nicolas Maduro and the seizure of Venezuelan oil fields are part of this logic. The Chinese imported almost all of this oil, or 10% of their needs. Same underlying idea in the war against Iran. Behind the objectives of overthrowing the Iranian regime and taking control of enriched uranium is the taking of control of this oil which covers around 15% of the Chinese needs.
China is the only actor that can influence Iran
In this escalating confrontation, Xi Jinping wondered how to avoid the “Thucydides trap”, named after the Greek historian of the Peloponnesian War where the rise in power of Athens against Sparta alone ended up making the war inevitable…
“We have a lot to say to each other”announced Donald Trump on Tuesday before taking his plane to Beijing. No doubt he wanted to forget that, if he had gone to China before February 28, he would have been in a much better position to negotiate. America remains the world’s leading power, but Xi Jinping repeats it: “The East is booming and the West is declining” And “time and momentum are on China’s side”. “Trump meets with Chinese leader who is convinced his country is winning the race”warns Rush Doshi, researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Iran was supposed to be a rapid, victorious campaign to reestablish American supremacy and that of its ally Israel in the Middle East. With the blocking of Hormuz, it has become a burden on Trump’s shoulders. Electoral prospects oblige, but also the economic health of his country and the world, the matter cannot stop there. Threats, blockade of the blockade, even naval battle, Trump has tried everything to reopen the strait, without success. He now needs help from Beijing, which knows this very well. China is in fact the only actor that can weigh on Iran, with the Russians and the Europeans only playing a part in this crisis. Moreover, it was Beijing which, on April 8, twisted the arms of the last recalcitrant guards to urge Tehran to sign a ceasefire which, despite pressure, still lasts.
“Constructive strategic stability”
It is therefore no coincidence that, during his welcome speech, Xi Jinping immediately mentions Taiwan, which could be the counterpart of this Chinese aid. The location of the exchange was not chosen by chance. The Great Palace of the People was the place of imperial ceremonies where divine legitimacy to rule was claimed. Xi Jinping threatens: if the Taiwan question is poorly managed, it could lead to conflict between the United States and China. As he then walked with his Chinese counterpart towards the Temple of Heaven, Donald Trump was questioned five times in a row by journalists about Taiwan. He answers: “China is magnificent. » Move along, there’s nothing to see.
Of course, the Chinese leader is not directly proposing a barter, but the Hormuz versus Taiwan equation is on everyone’s minds. The return of the island to the motherland is a Chinese obsession. With the Iranian quagmire on his back, Trump does not seem able to commit his army to the defense front of Taiwan. In view of this meeting, Donald Trump had also ordered the freezing of the granting of military aid of 14 billion dollars made up of Patriot air defense systems and anti-drone equipment. Was it a gesture of goodwill or the resigned action of a leader who knows he no longer has a choice?
Trump has described his relationship with Xi as “the longest and best between Chinese and American leaders in all history”. Beijing has said nothing about Iran, officially. Trump tells Fox News that the Chinese leader has offered him help on Hormuz, that Beijing will not send military equipment to Tehran and that he will oppose its obtaining atomic weapons. Behind the postures and confidences distilled in dribs and drabs, the two parties have in any case agreed on a new framework for Sino-American relations, called “constructive strategic stability”. Objective: to establish a stable, healthy and lasting long-term relationship. Much remains to be resolved, but it seems that the new Peloponnesian War will never take place. That’s already it…
