Count on 7 dollars for a set of 100 stickers. On the screens of gas pumps, from California to the suburbs of Dallas, the sticker appears here and there. We see Donald Trump, smiling, his index finger raised towards the price of the gallon. And the little sentence, in the bubble that accompanies it – “I did that” – sums up an American adage as worn as the asphalt of Route 66: it is at the (gas) station that the election is played out.
At a little more than a dollar per liter of super on national average (around 90 euro cents), fuel recorded levels not seen since 2022. This was under Joe Biden, again before midtermsand we didn’t give much of his majority… The Democrat finally lost, very narrowly, the House of Representatives but won a seat in the Senate. What if, finally, Trump repeated the feat of his predecessor by forgetting the price at the pump? Because, in these upcoming elections, the Republicans’ best ally could well be, once again, the Democratic Party.
As unpopular as he is, Trump will ultimately have paid for his Iranian adventure by only two to five points according to the institutes. Far from the predicted collapse, he stagnated below the 40% popularity mark, below Barack Obama and slightly above George W. Bush, at the same time in their second term. A bad performance, but not the disaster predicted.
A sign that nothing is yet decided for the midtermsSean Hannity, star of Fox News, and close to Trump, relied all week on a competitive poll, carried out by SSRS for the CNN and CBS channels. At this point in the electoral cycle, the “net favorability”this index – very American – which measures the image of parties by subtracting negative opinions from positive ones, gives five points more to the Republicans. In other words, if both camps are very unpopular, the opposition is even more hated! In detail, only 28% of Americans have a favorable image of the Democratic Party, compared to 32% for Republicans. A quarter of the electorate even rejects both parties simultaneously: these “double haters” multiply. This limited gap contrasts with recent precedents. In 2018, during the midterm elections under Trump I, the Democrats had a twelve point lead.
Countless number of reversals are possible
For a decade, they have been building against Trump rather than for themselves. This strategy is wearing thin. The scarecrow mobilizes crowds in big cities on Sundays; he is less convincing in the voting booth on election Tuesdays. John Kennedy’s party is struggling with an internal divorce between pragmatists and Mamdani-leaning radicals, while inclusive language and identity battles continue to exasperate independents.
On the ground, the gap is there. On April 7, in Georgia, all eyes were on the 14th district, that of Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former Maga muse turned Trump slayer, who called for his dismissal on the Iranian issue. In this constituency scarred by the most publicized break in the Republican camp, the Trump-branded candidate won with nearly 57% of the vote. Democrats pointed to the narrowing gap. They are wrong to show off. After such an internal storm, the president showed resilience.
Hundreds of primaries are opening across the country. They will say whether the protest running through the Republican camp is part of the groundswell. In the House, the resolution on war powers defended by Kentucky MP Thomas Massie was rejected: the non-interventionist wing exists but, outside of the podcasts of a few ex-Maga, it carries relatively little weight.
November will be another season. Meteorologically and politically. A countless number of reversals are possible. Yes, the tide seems to be blowing in favor of Democrats in the House, as evidenced by some local polls and district-by-district projections. But nothing yet allows us to speak of a blue wave. In the Senate, where a third of the seats are at stake, the electoral card is stacked against the Democrats: they are defending fragile positions in disputed states while having to conquer several Republican strongholds. The hypothesis of a divided Congress is today the most credible.
Public attention is quickly slipping in the United States. Especially under Trump. When the price of gasoline falls again, the themes that brought him to power in 2024 – immigration, security, identity – will return to the debate and television spots. And even at gas stations.
