The report of Donald Trump to Christianity has never been simple. We cannot say that his way of life until now has been worthy of the paragon of virtue that the majority of Catholics might expect, but the main thing is elsewhere: his conservatism and the other values that he embodies have appealed more to Christians in general than to Democrats. And this concerns Catholics as well as evangelicals of course. The latest outrageous remarks from the American president with regard to the new Pope Leo
All this followed the Pope’s violent criticism of the American administration, already several weeks ago in terms of the fight against immigration, but now on the Iranian issue and the ongoing Gulf War. If evangelicals of all stripes are relatively discreet, many behind the American leader, it is true that Catholics are having difficulty passing the pill this time.
Little focused on personal religious practice, often clumsy in his biblical references, Donald Trump nevertheless achieved a major political tour de force during the last presidential election in 2024: sustainably capturing a significant part of the American Christian electorate, in part among the Latino and African-American populations traditionally predominantly inclined to vote Democratic. During his first election in 2016, then even more so during the second, he consolidated a decisive electoral base among evangelicals and, to a lesser extent, among conservative Catholics. This paradox, between personal distance and political instrumentalization of religion, sheds light on the current tensions with the Pope. Should we see a real risk of electoral fracture or on the contrary a fault line already integrated by its supporters?
A solid but differentiated Christian vote
Donald Trump’s electoral success was largely built on the evangelical vote, which constitutes one of the strongest pillars of his political coalition. From 2016, then in 2024, these voters overwhelmingly supported a candidate who, paradoxically, corresponded neither to their moral ideal nor to their religious practices. But politics took precedence over theology. On societal issues, particularly the appointment of conservative judges to the Supreme Court and the questioning of the federal right to abortion, Trump offered concrete victories to an electorate who had been mobilized for decades.
But beyond domestic issues, the evangelical vote has profoundly redefined, for several years, certain axes of American diplomacy. Its influence goes far beyond the domestic context. He contributed to structuring a vision of the world marked by a religious reading of international relations, particularly in the Middle East. The unwavering support for Israel is the most obvious illustration of this. For a large part of evangelicals, the existence and protection of Israel are as much a geopolitical conviction as a theological reading. This proximity was translated concretely under Trump by strong decisions, such as the transfer of the American embassy to Jerusalem, which were perceived as political but also symbolic markers.
Conversely, the Catholic vote remains more nuanced on these questions. If there is a conservative current sensitive to identity and security issues, another fringe, faithful to the social doctrine of the Church, remains more attentive to international balances, the fate of civilian populations and the search for diplomatic compromises. This difference in sensitivity partly explains why the tensions between Trump and the pope resonate more with the Catholic electorate than with evangelicals.
The election of Leo XIV marks an unprecedented turning point. For the first time, a pope from UNITED STATES finds itself in a position to dialogue, or oppose, head-on with an American president with a style as divisive as that of Donald Trump. This historical coincidence opens up a field of tensions but also of interpretations. It must be said that the two men do not have at all the same character and that rhetorically speaking, and because it is not in his interest, seeking to remain above the various attacks and controversies into which Donald Trump could easily drag him, Leo XIV does not overreact.
Concrete differences
On the one hand, some could see in this American pope an opportunity for cultural, even political, rapprochement. A mutual understanding of American realities, an ability to speak the same symbolic language. But very quickly, differences appeared, upon his election on May 8, 2025. Because Leo XIV, in the continuity of a social doctrine of the Church attentive to the most vulnerable, takes a very different line from that of Trump on several key subjects. Its history in Latin America and its positions close to the people are at odds with current American policy, particularly against illegal immigration largely from the American subcontinent. Where Trump favors a sovereignist and security approach, the Pope insists on welcoming migrants, international solidarity and the moral responsibility of the great powers. Where Trump thinks in terms of the balance of power, the Vatican continues to defend a universalist and humanist vision. This tension is not only political, it is philosophical.
The skirmishes between Donald Trump and Leo Everyone speaks to their audience. The Pope recalls the principles that he has never hidden while Trump legitimately mobilizes his voters. Remember that Donald Trump went to the Vatican for the funeral ceremony of Pope Francis, but has still not been there since the election of the new Pope. We would need the desire, the interest and it would be a very strong message, but we are far from it.
Should we therefore see a risk of a lasting break with the Catholic electorate? Nothing is less certain. Firstly because this electorate is already divided. Then because, in a context of extreme polarization, religious considerations often come second to identity, economic or security issues. Finally, and above all, because Trump’s evangelical base remains solid and structuring, including in its international projection. Is appeasement between Trump and the Pope possible? No doubt, at the margins. On certain consensual subjects, on the defense of religious freedom or on specific common causes. But substantive convergence seems unlikely. The two men embody two world views that are difficult to reconcile.
Is this serious politically for Trump? Probably not in the short term. Because in today’s America, ideological coherence is often less important than the ability to unite a camp. And on this point, Donald Trump has demonstrated that he knows how to transform tensions into political leverage and he needs it for the mid-term elections which will be held next November. The main thing for the American president is to maintain the support of “white” evangelicals who have been his most loyal base since 2016 and the ideological heart of Trumpism. However, Catholics often represent a more decisive electorate in “swing states”, the famous pivotal states like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
An official visit by Trump to the Vatican would be a strong, pragmatic and strategic symbol of reconciliation. Even if the American president favors the balance of power, while the Church is more seduced by moral consistency, not communication stunts. If the points of difference already mentioned are strong and seem irreconcilable, other subjects can bring the two men together: the defense of Eastern Christians, religious freedom in general in the world and the threats which continue to weigh more and more on Christians in general.
*Sébastien Boussois is a doctor in political science, media consultant, researcher in international relations associated with the CNAM Paris (Defense Security Team) and the Geostrategic Observatory of Geneva (Switzerland) and director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE).
