They will ultimately not take place. Expected in Islamabad for a second round of discussions with
Iranian dignitaries, Trump’s emissaries, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, did not make the trip. On Saturday evening, the American president canceled the visit, specifying that, if the Iranians wanted, “they can call us whenever they want”. A sign of a new procrastination on the part of the Americans? “It is a war diplomacy, fragmented, indirect, where each message is calibrated so as not to close the door while maintaining pressure,” warns Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project within Crisis Group. Everything was planned with the arrival in Islamabad, Pakistan, of Iranians Abbas Araghtchi (head of diplomacy) and Bagher Ghalibaf (president of Parliament), Friday evening. The Iranian position was clear.
“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. The United States must abandon the spirit of imposition in its approach. Donald Trumpby imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to transform this negotiation table into a table of surrender. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is impossible as long as the ceasefire is flouted by a naval blockade”warned Bagher Ghalibaf. If Iran demands a lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz (imposed by Donald Trump the day after the aborted negotiations in the Pakistani capital on April 12), there is no question for the White House to give in. A balance of power where each party engages in coercive diplomacy. It is in this context that Iran must present this weekend its “offer aimed at satisfying American demands”in Trump’s own words.
Tehran was, however, ready to consider a gradual de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for a partial reduction in sanctions. Added to this would be a temporary freeze of the nuclear program, without renunciation in principle – a constant red line for the regime.
The Iranian divide
“Tehran is not negotiating an abandonment, it is negotiating a strategic respite”explains Trita Parsi, specialist in Iran and expert in nuclear negotiations. But Washington also demands an end to Iranian support for regional armed groups. A requirement deemed unacceptable by Tehran which sees it as a challenge to its strategic architecture. “The United States wants to change Iran’s behavior; Iran wants to secure its regime »says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Beyond the deep disagreements between the two countries, the political divide which is emerging in Iran in no way favors a clear position taken by the regime. Since the February strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now dictates decisions. According to Axios, an American media outlet very close to decision-making circles in Washington, “Guardian generals, who now control the country, and Iranian civilian negotiators openly disagree over the strategy to adopt. U.S. officials began to see divisions after the first round of Islamabad talks, when it became clear that IRGC commander Gen. Ahmad Vahidi and his deputies had rejected many of the points discussed by Iranian negotiators..
With the blockade, Trump plays the pressure card
economic
The most revealing scene played out around Hormuz. The day after Abbas Araghtchi announced the reopening of the strait, the Guardians fired on two commercial ships. One of the sailors even said: “We will open it on the orders of our leader, Imam Khamenei, not in consideration of the tweets of an idiot”a reference to Donald Trump’s threats. This fracture at the highest summit of the Islamic Republic is also linked to the assassination by Israel, in March, of Ali Larijani, former secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, who had the authority and political weight necessary to ensure the cohesion of the Iranian decision-making process. Are the mullahs giving way to the Revolutionary Guards, these owners of large sections of the economy and the security apparatus who will not relinquish power? Certainly.
Trump recognized this situation and wrote it in black and white on his Truth Social network: “Given the serious rift within the Iranian government, we have been asked to suspend our offensive against Iran until its leaders and representatives manage to present a joint proposal. I will extend the ceasefire until their proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded, one way or another. » And it was at Pakistan’s request that it extended the ceasefire a few hours before it expired on April 21.
Trump’s levers
Also firmly in his positions to force Tehran to bend, the American president is above all playing the economic pressure card. With its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, it deprives the Islamic Republic of a financial windfall of 500 million dollars per day: unsustainable for an economy already crushed by decades of sanctions. The idea? Strangle the Iranians to force them to resume dialogue, because they themselves will not be able to transit their ships.
Another card: China, which played a discreet but essential role in the diplomatic initiative led by Islamabad. Beijing is by far the largest buyer of Iranian oil, absorbing an estimated 80% of its exports. By blocking the strait, Trump is encouraging Xi Jinping to put pressure on Iran. Finally, the military threat of “destroy all power plants and bridges in Iran if Tehran refuses a reasonable deal”in the words of the Pentagon, should be put into perspective. Militarily, the U.S. Navy can escort three to four commercial ships per day with seven to eight destroyers providing air cover. But maintaining such an operation sustainably over several months requires much greater resources. Especially since Iran retains a formidable nuisance capacity: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a fleet hidden in coastal waters capable of striking asymmetrically.
In this standoff, time is against everyone: against the Iranian economy, against Trump’s credibility a few months before the midterms, against the stability of a region on edge. At the bottom of the Strait of Hormuz, the waters are still. They are waiting, like the rest of the world, for one of the two camps to finally decide the price of its political defeat.
